Friday, February 02, 2007

Enough With the Early Prez Polls

I found this by Mystery Pollster to give a little perspective:

    Consider these numbers, each the standing of the respective candidate from the Gallup Poll trial heat questions asked on surveys at about this time in each election cycle.

    * 6% - George McGovern, August 1971
    * 3.5% - Jimmy Carter, February 1975
    * 2.9% - George Bush, January 1979
    * 1.6% - Gary Hart, December 1982
    * 3.0% - Bill Clinton, February 1991
    * 3.8% - John McCain, March 1999
    * 4.0% - Howard Dean, January 2003
(This came in a post in which Sen. Chris Dodd (D-Conn.) joked that he is competing with the margin of error.)

I know polls are always irresistible to political junkies like us, but at this stage in the game, polls only tell you whose names are familiar. Hillary v. Edwards or Hillary v. Gore may mean slightly more, but only slightly.

What really matters now is how much money candidates are raising, who they've recruited for core staff and how many times they get mentioned by the media.


redhorse said...

All true, which is why I wanted to do the PBD poll. Ostensibly, my sample is a great deal more in-tuned and able to differentiate b/n Hillary's Iraq position and Richardson's.

Then again, it matters little in the long range.