Nickie Antonio Now Running Unopposed; Poised to Become Ohio's First Gay Legislator

Word comes tonight that the challenger of Ohio House candidate Nickie Antonio has dropped out of the race, making her virtually assured of becoming Ohio's first openly gay or Lesbian representative. H/t to Equality Ohio for the email notice

Jeremy Caldwell had been running against Ms. Antonio as an independent. He hasn't posted a reason for dropping out on his MySpace blog, though the fact that his web presence was a MySpace group with 15 friends may have something to do with it.

Since talking about her sexuality caused a stir on the blogosphere recently, let me say this. Like Jack Shafer, I dream of a day when a person's sexuality will not be an issue. Since today it is with a significant portion of the electorate, when a candidate is able to succeed despite the bias of that part of the electorate, it is a thing to be celebrated. The only way we get to the end point of sexuality being irrelevant is to pay attention to successes of LGBT people today.

Ohio 16th Check-In

This week Republican Congressional nominee Jim Renacci's most credible primary opponent endorsed him. Which is sufficient excuse to check in on the race.

Renacci is running in the Sixteenth District against freshman incumbent (and something of a blogosphere darling) John Boccieri.

Here's hoping they make as a campaign issue the proper pronunciation of double c's in Italian.

With his erstwhile challenger Matt Miller formally endorsing him, Renacci is consolidating his party support in the district. While ongoing strife with Miller was unlikely, a cleavage between the southern part of the district and the Stark County center of gravity.

In addition to the Miller, the same article notes that he is lining up the traditional Stark County Republican brokers, notably the Timkens and Representative emeritus Ralph Regula.

Renacci has been running hard since the start of the year. He's been tapped by the national party as one of its top tier Congressional candidates, and has been raising money by the barrowful.

He's also been spending it by the barrowful. He has been running ads on WKNR since January. First, a life story, then ads telling Boccieri not to vote for health care reform, then ads slamming him for his vote in favor. All this happened before the primary. Advertising on KNR is a profligate use of campaign money as coverage is spotty in Stark and Wayne. Currently the campaign continues the onslaught with ads decrying government spending.

Renacci has an interesting resume -- entrepreneur and small town mayor. Sadly, he's not running a very interesting campaign. Instead of proposing innovative center/right solutions, he's reading straight from the RNC playbook, claiming Boccieri is a Nancy Pelosi lackey and pretending that Pelosi and Obama are entirely responsible for the economic mess. On health care for instance, he advances only the two Republican non-solutions -- interstate competition and tort reform.

Yawn.

While it makes for a predictable campaign, it isn't a stupid strategy. The election will be more than anything else a reflection of the public mood on the economy. Republicans are rooting for the numbers to remain bad and hitching their wagons to grim economic forecasts. And history says

It's tired to say Stark County is a bellwether, but once again it is. This will be a knock down drag out race spending armored car loads of campaign cash. In the end it will come down to how voters in the Sixteenth feel about the economy.

Tom Ganley in Akron

Tom Ganley spoke before the Akron Press Club in early October and, yes, I'm just getting to it now. It's been a trying semester. Sue me.

Anyway, with Ganley running the first ad in what looks like a media-heavy campaign and the ODP increasingly working to pump up the NY23-ness of the Republican primary, it's worth revisiting that appearance. In a separate post I'll offer my views on what threat, if any, he is in the race.

The first thing we learned about Tom Ganley is that he's sufficiently interested in the race to spend money recklessly. He hired a crew to assemble a stage for his presentation -- raised platform, blue drapery background, teleprompters, all for an audience of maybe forty.

The second thing we learned was that Ganley fancies himself a populist. A thin line exists between conservative populism and ugly xenophobic nativism, but it doesn't matter how thin because Ganley vaults himself well into nativist territory.

For much of his 15 minutes or so of prepared remarks Ganley hit on traditional economic conservative themes -- lower spending, lower taxes, smaller government. But he hit on some odd themes as well, particularly decrying the loss of manufacturing jobs in Ohio. Since most of those jobs have gone overseas and pro-business conservatives don't necessarily see that as a bad thing.

Ganley's one specific policy proposal is a job creation tax credit, given for recalling laid off workers, creating new jobs or repatriating jobs that have gone overseas. Hmm. There it is again.

The other strong theme in his brief stump speech is that Tom Ganley is a businessman. That he is a successful businessman cannot be denied. He started with a Rambler dealership when he was twenty something and has built that into the highest volume dealership group in the state. Recalling the Rambler my parents had when I was wee, parlaying that dealership into anything better than Chapter 11 is a significant accomplishment.

But Ganley oversells the business angle. Why does everyone who runs for Congress as a successful business person think he/she is the first to do so? In Ganley's mind, no one in Washington understands business and everyone who understands business can understand government. He says that when he is elected he will bring eight or so Senators together and teach them all there is to know about running a business. Then charge those eight Senators with teaching their colleagues. And that will fix things in Washington.

No really, he said all this. Like a freshman Senator will be in a position to "teach" senior Senators anything. It's so darn cute you just want to hug him. It might be worth sending him to Washington just to see the inevitable hazing.

If you haven't been to a Press Club event, the usual drill is a half hour or so speeh, followed by Q&A from the audience. Among other things we're trying to fill the one hour slot we have for cable rebroadcasts. Ganley's people knew this, but nonetheless he gave his fifteen minute stump and looked increasingly uncomfortable as the questioned dragged on. He derides "professional politicians," but the sooner he learns there is an actual skill set to appearing before and adapting to a crowd, the fewer days like this he will have.

It was in the Q&A that we really get that populist, er, nativist streak in Ganley's thought. When pressed to differentiate himself with Portman specifically on trade, he made overtly protectionist noises. He said as a threshold matter that he would not have voted for a trade deal with China, and that he does not believe in negotiating trade deals generally. He also had favorable things to say about recent measures to protect the domestic tire industry.

But of all his positions, none got him more animated that illegal immigration. To his credit, he would "come down hard" on the executives on companies that hire illegals. But he also made ugly noises about the "millions who don't belong here." He's clearly not in favor of any reform that would involve a path to citizenship. And when asked a tricky question -- what should we do upon finding an undocumented family with a child sick with H1N1 -- he said indignantly that if they are illegal, deport 'em.

So while populism generally aims at channeling grassroots energy at challenging the power of establishment institutions, Ganley seems more interested in channeling it at alien others. Depending on where he goes with it, this could devolve into a nasty, shower-necessitating campaign. And that bit about deporting a sick kid for one will make a nice sound bite against him.

Grumpy Abe has been attending and writing up the Senate events as well. You can read his take on Ganley here.

ODP Talking Junk about the Republican Senate Primary

The tasteful graphic above is from the Ohio Democratic Party website today. The link leads to a release riffing on an ABC News story about the Republican Senate Campaign Committee assuming a neutral posture in contested primaries in 2010. The presser notes:

COLUMBUS - National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee Chairman Senator John Cornyn pledged yesterday that his committee would not spend a cent in a contested Republican Senate primaries or open seats as part of an effort to "ease some of the anger being directed at the party establishment."

By making this statement, Cornyn declared that national Republicans will not interfere in the contested U.S. Senate Republican Primary between architect of the Bush economy Rob Portman and wealthy Cleveland-area businessman Tom Ganley.

The original story in fact does not mention the Ohio race. And as of now the race isn't much of a contest with Ganley stuck in single digits. ODP may be rooting for a fight on the Republican side, but are unlikely to get one.

Still and all it's fun to see the party trying to stir up trouble. And with this I declare this week Senate Campaign Week here at the Pages. Which is to say, I am hoping to finally write up my impressions of the three candidates who have thus far appeared at the Akron Press Club (Ganley, Portman and Brunner) and prognosticate a bit about the race.

Tom Ganley Leads Off APC Senate Candidate Programs

The Akron Press Club will host all four major candidates for Ohio's U.S. Senate seat this fall. This Thursday, Oct. 1st auto dealer and candidate Tom Ganley will speak. Details and reservation info here.

OK, some may argue about whether Ganley is a major candidate. But hey, Bay Buchanan has endorsed him. So now he has that going for him. Which is nice.

The rest of the fall schedule goes as follows:

Oct. 29, Ambassador Rob Portman
Nov. 5, Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner
Dec. 8, Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher

City Council Website Updates

While I was out a number of campaign websites went live. OK Kelli Crawford's has been up awhile, but I'm just getting around to updating the sidebar. Anyway, the sidebar is up to date with respect to the campaigns that have contacted me, plus some candidates I have run across. I'm including Facebook groups for those candidates for whom such a group is the only web presence.

I have to say that the project has been made more difficult by the surprising number of candidates who share names with people just that much more famous that Akron politicians.

Search for Joe Finley and the results are swamped by coverage of an NHL hopeful from the University of North Dakota. Ward 8 candidate Bruce Bolden (who still doesn't have a web presence, apparently) shares a name with an Australian basketball player. Search for John Conti and you get lots of hits for John Conti Coffee.

Happily Kelli Crawford is holding her own against Australian kid show performer and mens mag model (!?) Kellie Crawford. And happily I found Mike Williams before needing to Google him.

I'll keep picking at this, but needless to say, if you are working on a campaign with a website, the best way to make sure the site is on the roll is to drop me an email. (Thanks, e.g. to the DiLauro campaign who hit me today.)

I would note that I haven't heard from any Republican candidates and have only found one so far. I'd especially like to see/hear from any R's making a run to break the current hegemony on Council.

Akron Candidates Roll Is Up

As promised I've added a list of candidates with websites at left (third list down.) After my last post about the races I've been contacted by Will Padilla who is running in the crowded Ward 8 primary (site of the House of Pho) and Lisa Mansfield who is running for school board.

Will Padilla has a nice site up and a fine looking resume. It will be hard to make headway in such a crowded field, but he will be someone to watch in the future.

Lisa Mansfield also has a Friends of group on Facebook and is twittering -- you can find those links on the website/blog which is a work in progress.

As the season wears on and sites go live I'll add to the list. I check every once in a while but someone who wants to be added should drop a line to be sure.

Jeff Fusco Is Canvassing

Count City Council at-large candidate (and Citizens for Akron Treasurer) Jeff Fusco among those getting a jump on the very very crowded field for Council this year. I didn't see him in my neighborhood but got a flier stuck in my door. Fusco is one of three at-large candidates, along with Terry Albanese and Jim Shealey, whom Mayor Plusquellic is endorsing in the race.

I've been scrying the internets for council campaign sites. Fusco is one of the few I've found. I'll start a roll at left for them. Fusco is simply using Blogger as a platform for his site, but is keeping the blog updated (ahem, Sandra Kurt). Bare bones to be sure -- he didn't even spring for a non-blogspot url. But it still puts him well ahead of the pack in terms of web presence.

At large incumbent Jim Shealey has a personal webpage up -- one that got him some criticism when he linked to it on his Council page. It's not exactly a campaign website but not exactly not either.

I have three or four projects in mind for the blog this summer. Sifting through the Council candidates is one of them. If you know a candidate -- or are a candidate -- feel free to touch base.

City Council: Finley's Slate

Last Thursday the latest salvo in the battle for the soul of Akron began as Joe Finley announced his slate for City Council. Finley is styling his slate "Democrats for Reform," though as the ABJ points out, he hasn't been specific about what needs reform and what these guys plan to do about it.

Here's the Finley slate:

Ward 2: Bruce Kilby (incumbent)Ward 3: Jan David (vs. Marco Summerville - good luck with that)
Ward 5: Willis Smith (v. Kenneth Jones)
Ward 6: Wayne Kartler (open seat -- Terry Albanese is vacating to run at-large)
Ward 7: Dave Reymann (v. Tina Merlitti)
Ward 10: Jay Moore (v. Kelli Crawford)
At-large: Joe Finley

Say this for Finley -- he's not shy about going after hard targets. On the other hand, he does seem to trying to distance himself from Team Mullligan. From the ABJ post-recall story:

Plusquellic accused Finley of being in league with those behind the recall, noting that Finley appears in a photograph from one of the group's early meetings. He said Finley's slate is the ''same group'' at the ''same time'' who will use the ''same tactics.''

Finley, who along with his ally, Ward 2 Councilman Bruce Kilby, came out against the recall in late March, acknowledged he attended one of the pro-recall group's early meetings. But, he said, he didn't circulate petitions or otherwise help the effort.

Hmm. Yes he came out against the recall. But according to the ABJ the bulk of the Democrats for Reform worked on the recall. And Joe himself joined all three pro-recall Facebook groups. I certainly understand Finley not wanting to be associated with the toxic asset that Mendenhall has become, but he probably should have thought of that sooner.

As of now, the Finley slate has no web presence, so it's pretty much impossible to know what exactly they are proposing aside from being unfriendly to the Mayor. During the Mayoral primary, Finley seemed to have no position other than the opposite of whatever Plusquellic said, and he famously doesn't have much of a record as a Councilman. His main claim to fame at this point is having come closer than expected to winning the micro-turnout primary in 2007 (then getting horsewhipped in his run at Russ Pry for County Executive). If he wants to be something more than a drag on his slate-mates, he needs to come up with some specific policy goals.

And for God's sake, can he run without bashing the city he wants to serve? Nothing irked me more during that primary than his constant poormouthing of Akron and its prospects. The same thing happened in the recall election. Akron is challenged by economic forces not under anyone's control, but it's better postioned for the Twenty-First Century economy than any other city in the region. Candidates who fail to acknowledge this fact do themselves and the people whose votes they court a disservice.

Fisher Campaign Mining Hillary's Email List. Brunner . . . Responds?

Got an email today titled "Why Lee Fisher Is Right for Ohio." I've gotten some other Fisher communiques, so nothing unusual there. Upon opening I read, after the opening grafs:

We are contacting you as an Ohio resident and a member of Hillary Clinton's online community. If you do not wish to receive email messages from Lee Fisher's campaign, please click here to unsubscribe.

The opening is artfully managed:

Back during the presidential campaign, Lee worked hard to help Hillary win the Ohio primary and helped Barack Obama win in November, just as he's worked hard for Ohioans in the state legislature, as Attorney General, Director of Economic Development, and Lieutenant Governor.

None of this is a surprise. Fisher (well, Strickland and Fisher went along) did indeed come out early for Hillary; Fisher's campaign manager Geri Prado (the putative author of the email), is a Hillary campaign vet; and of course Bill is actively campaigning for Fisher. Whatever else you can say about the Clinton's, they know how to repay favors. Whatever else you can say about Fisher, he knows how to bank favors and call them in at the right time.

What's funny about all this is the fundraising email I got from Brunner just ahead of the Prado/Fisher solicitation. The opening is a not-at-all veiled reference to the Clintons:

Last Tuesday, voters in Virginia defeated the well-funded "establishment" candidate for the Democratic nomination by a huge margin - 50% to 26% in a three-way race - sending State Senator Creigh Deeds to face the Republican in November. Deeds won resoundingly because, as the Washington Post noted, his "message and momentum" swept him to a big victory.

Who was that well-funded "establishment" candidate? Uber-Clintonista Terry McCauliff. Don't know if Brunner got wind of Fisher using the Hillary list or if it's just a coincidence they went out so close together. In any event, Brunner is calling out to Clintons without calling them by name.

This is still a race between two people I have a hard time caring one way or the other about, but at least it's entertaining.

Lee Fisher's Gay Marriage Flip Sends Me to the Wayback Machine.

I've been asked offline who I'm supporting in the Senate primary. Frankly the contest is between two people about whom I have a hard time caring one way or another. I'll get to why Jennifer Brunner gives me the blahs at a later date. As to Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher's, look no further than his sort-of maybe flip-flop on gay marriage. I've seen this movie before and know how it ends.

In 1994 I was a volunteer in the Summit County office of the Tom Sawyer/Joel Hyatt/Lee Fisher combined campaign. I was a drone, but nonetheless we heard things, and of course we were paying attention to the race. Fisher was defending his Attorney General seat against Betty Montgomery in a bad year for Democrats -- between Clinton backlash (the less virulent pre-Lewinsky strain, but still), the House check-kiting scandal, and Republicans who generally felt energized and optimistic, everyone was running scared.

Montgomery's main attack on Fisher was that she was a career prosecutor and he wasn't. "Lee Fisher has never even tried a criminal case" she cawed in her commercials. A few weeks out from the election the Fisher campaign trotted out a counter-attack -- that Montgomery's office pled down a child sex case. Having litigated more than my share of such cases I can tell you that every responsible office has plead down child sex cases. They are hard to win and traumatic on the victim. If you can plead down to get 9 years out of a possible 25 and spare the victim having to testify, that's the smart play.

Montgomery's office was able to document why the case was pled down, the papers generally went against Fisher, the campaign backed down and his lead in the polls slipped. Then he did it. Again. We couldn't believe it. The exact same scenario all over again. And again his lead dwindled.

What it looked like was a politician with poor political instincts overreacting to campaign events and unable to say no to his staff. And that's what this looks like as well. In the party primary, Brunner is tacking left, having declared her support for marriage equality long before that looked like a winning issue. Despite being on a ticket that won Ohio with a yes on partnerships/no on marriage position, and despite watching Obama carry Ohio with an identical campaign platform, he is overrunning the volley from Brunner and saying "me too."

And while I agree with the (apparent) policy change, let's be real -- this isn't even good politics in the long run. Fisher's one good argument on this point is that his position is far less of a liability in the general election in a state that overwhelmingly voted for one of the most restrictive anti-equality amendments in the country a mere five years ago. He's not just pandering, he's pandering a hole in his foot.

Lee Fisher isn't the only candidate in the field who has run a statewide campaign before. But he is the only one who has lost one. Stuff like this right here is why.

Early Pho Endorsement: Sandra Kurt for City Council

My friend Sandra Kurt is running for City Council in Ward 8. I've known Sandra for a few years now, having met her at Summit County Progressive Dems. Professionally, she's an engineer but off hours she's a tireless advocate for causes she feels passionately about, particularly domestic violence prevention and LGBT issues.

The Ward 8 seat is the one vacated by Bob Keith. Sandra was in the mix for the appointment to replace him, but that appointment ultimately went to Raymond Cox. While Dr. Cox has great academic credentials, I want a fighter on Council.

Yes, the Apportionment Board Matters. A Lot.

A Jill post from yesterday points to a Mark Naymik column about the looming primary fight to go after Sen. George Voinovich's soon-to-be vacant seat 2010. The column focuses primarily on the possible battle between Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner for the nomination. One objection to Brunner's nomination is the fact that leaving her position makes it harder for the Democrats to hold on to the office, also up in 2010, and that she sits on the apportionment board. This is, for example, why I don't want her to run, even though the prospect of listening to Lee Fisher stump speeches for an election cycle is horrifying.

In response to the apportionment board argument, Naymik notes the following:

[Brunner] and others correctly argue that the power of the Apportionment Board may be overstated - as evidenced by Democrats' success last year in House districts last drawn by Republicans. (Democrats, though, performed badly in Ohio Senate districts.)

Also, if Democrats deliver on their promise to pass election reforms, those reforms are likely to include changing the apportionment process. Computers can redraw the lines without partisan politics, eliminating the need for board seats.

OK, let's take these one at a time. First, while it is correct to say that the Democrats did well in the Ohio House the last cycle, it isn't correct to say that the power of the Board is therefore overstated. Yes, in the year of a Democratic tsunami, in which a popular Democratic Presidential nominee poured a gazillion dollars into state organizing and turnout efforts, Dems did well in Republican districts. That's not the same as saying the districts don't matter, just that they matter less in an outlier year. Unless those factors will be repeated every two years, this one cycle doesn't alter the power of the Board.

Since 2000 Ohio has been close to 50/50 in Presidential elections. In that same time span, until this past election, the Ohio House and Senate have each been split around one-third Dem to two-thirds R. That's in large part thanks to the very effective map drawing the Apportionment Board did when it was composed of one Dem and four Republicans.

Moreover, the just-wait-till-last-year argument ignores how the Republicans draw districts -- they concentrate Dems in a few very strongly Dem districts, then draw Republican districts with relatively small but fairly stable margins. Sitting at home I don't have access to PVIs for the Ohio House districts, but a look at the Congressional districts (just scroll down to Ohio. There you go) illustrates the principle. Of the six districts drawn blue only one -- the Sixth, Strickland's old district -- has a PVI under D+6. One is at six, the rest are eight or above. In contrast, only four Republican districts are above +8, two more are R+6 and the six are +4 or lower. Those relatively low R+ PVI districts are the ones in which Dems did well last year, but before that they provided a strong enough margin to maintain Republican hegemony in the Statehouse.

As for the second argument regarding redistricting reform. First off, no one hold their breath. At this point we haven't heard a serious reform proposal since Dems started looking strong again. Moreover, any proposal has to get past the Republican dominated State Senate. At this point Republicans have an incentive to agree to real reform. If they think they will retake the Apportionment Board by winning a vacant Secretary of State position, there is that much less incentive.

Jennifer Brunner needs to honor the promise she made to serve out her term as Secretary of State, plus a second, assuming she is reelected. She needs to do so, not only because she is an effective Secretary during a time when election adminstration is seeing significant upheaval. She also needs to stay because her party needs her to hold onto the seat for reapportionment.

Coughlin Running for Guv.

In lieu of one of my mewling post about sorry I've been away and now the blog is back, let's just jump into it.

To no one's surprise (least of all followers of the Pages) term-limited State Senator Kevin Coughlin has announced his candidacy for Governor. Given the number of other term-limited R's looking to take a run at Ted, Coughlin at this point has to be considered a longshot.

What intrigues me is how ugly the resultant primary may be. One need not search far to find the rumors about Coughlin. Up until now he hasn't had to concern himself much as he hasn't had opponents either sufficiently well-funded or sufficiently mean-spirited to perform and use that sort of opposition research. Plus the rumors are the sort that Dems have a hard time getting worked up over.

But that all changes once he's in a statewide race with other Republicans. And with Alex Arshinkoff looking to settle scores to boot.

Oh yes, the Arshinkoff factor. Coughlin failed in his bid to bring Alex down. And while the anti-Alex activists could point to his supposed losing streak before the election, it's hard to do so after this past election. As he has done in the past, Alex rocked the non-partisan elections, which is to say he did about as well as any Republican chair in a Dem county in a Dem year could do.

So. Coughlin in a state-wide primary. A resurgent Arshinkoff looking for payback.

Pass the popcorn.

Perspective

Ms. Cafaro May Again Be Getting too Big for her Capris

PolitickerOhio reports today that State Sen. Capri Cafaro will be lobbying in Denver to position herself for a run at George Voinovich in 2010:

At the Democratic National Convention in Denver, keep an eye on the ambitious and affluent Capri Cafaro, who is expected to use the gathering of party insiders, activists and fundraisers as an opportunity to advance her next political move: a race for U.S. Senate in two years against GOP incumbent George Voinovich. A Democratic insider who is close to Cafaro says that the freshman State Senator is giving strong consideration to a statewide bid.

A quibble with Politicker's story. They note that Cafaro is "the favorite to win a full four-year term representing the 32nd district in November." Well, yes. Generally a candidate is the favorite when she has no opponent.

If she runs in 2012, she will do so having not won a contested election and having lost after pouring crazy money into two contests. By accounts she is having a decent run in the State Senate, but until she actually wins an election -- with the requisite becoming likable on the stump -- talk of a Senate run is woefully premature.

Couglin Working Toward Guv Run: Breaking News and a Bleg

An Anonymous dropped a comment in my George Carlin post, reproducing a fundraising letter he received from State Sen. Kevin Coughlin (R-Vidal Sassoon.) Here's the meat of it:

Often in politics, leaders promise to be visionaries who will "turn around Ohio."
All too often, those slogans and promises turn out to be empty.

Ohio's challenges are too serious to simply be managed. They require
forward thinking leadership that is in touch with our common values. Our citizens
deserve leadership that is bold enough to share a detailed vision and is
energetic enough to turn that vision into a reality.

I want you to be the first to know that I will be spending the coming months
discussing what my contribution can be toward building a Whole New Ohio with
my family, friends, and supporters. By Thanksgiving, I will decide whether
to seek to lead our state in 2010.[Emphasis added]

Everyone has been expecting Coughlin to run at statewide office, though it wasn't clear whether it would be Governor or a downticket race like taking on Jennifer Brunner. This looks like Bexley is in his sights.

At this point, no additional information is available on KC's campaign website and New Summit Republicans remains static since the coup was put down.

Ted Strickland could do worse than an opponent who will be undercut by his home county party chair (and one of the most powerful party chairs in the state) at every turn. Make no mistake, Alex Arshinkoff will say "feh" to party loyalty and make it his personal mission to take out Coughlin if he runs. And it wouldn't even make the Top Ten Most Petty and Fratricidal Things A² Has Ever Done list.

Meanwhile, I'm curious who is getting this letter. All I know about Anon is that he's posting from Akron. Summit County is pretty barren land for Coughlin after his unsuccessful run at Alex. He certainly won't get any of the major funders on board and folks who give to him will likely get on Alex's naughty list.

Hence the bleg¹ part. Did anyone outside of SummitCo. get the letter? Please drop a comment or an email. Thanks.

¹If you are relatively new to blog world, a "bleg" is a blog-based request for information. Blog + beg. And agreed, the lingo is getting increasingly precious.

Dems Tapping Cordray for AG

The Dispatch Blog got there first. The post says Strickland will endorse Treasurer Cordray which should clear the Dem field for him.

Recall that this has been rumored for some time -- even before Dann stepped down. The question remains whether they actually conducted a screening process or whether this has been wired all along and the "Submit your interest" bit was just window dressing.

Obama's Map

The First Read guys are updating their electoral college map. The leftysphere has been giddy about a new national poll, but of course the map is what's important. Here are the reported results and thoughts:

Base Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT (153 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: ME, NJ, MN, OR, WA (47 votes)
Toss-up: CO, FL, IA, MI, NV, NM, NH, OH, PA, VA, WI (138 votes)
Lean McCain: AR, GA, IN, LA, MS, MO, MT, NE, NC, ND (84 votes)
Base McCain: AL, AK, AZ, ID, KS, KY, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY (116 votes)

While both McCain and Obama get to 200 when adding up their base and lean states, it’s clear to see that Obama has an early edge with the map. Not only does he have a stronger base than McCain does (153 votes vs. 116), but he also has more potential pick-up opportunities. When you add toss-up and “Lean McCain,” Obama has the potential for another 222 votes outside his favored states. By comparison, McCain’s toss-up and “Lean Obama” comes to 185. Of course, potential sometimes means just that -- potential. At the end of the day, Obama will likely win few, if any, of those Lean McCain states. But his reach right now seems much longer than McCain’s.

Some additional thoughts.

This map represents gains almost across the board from the (methodologically different) Rove map of a couple of weeks ago.

The map also shows the power of Obama's fundraising advantage. He will be able run McCain all over the country, giving him little in the way of uncontested wins. Normally Dems write off the southeast, but Obama can spare some money and time in vote-rich states like North Carolina and Georgia. He probably won't win both and might not win either, but McCain will have to devote resources there, including pouring TV money into expensive media markets like Atlanta, to keep Obama at bay.

One of the oft asked questions around here is whether Obama will write off Ohio in favor of another swing state like Missouri or the newly-swingy Virginia. Between the current toss-up status and again the money advantage, he may not need to make that choice.

The First Read story goes on to say that the results over the next two weeks will reflect a bounce from securing the nomination. Not an illegitimate bounce, but it will likely drop a bit heading into July.

Jeff has some other map results up. I prefer a five-tier division like this to a straight up electoral vote count.

Finally, the map reflects some ongoing changes in demography. New Hampshire, once resolutely red, is looking increasingly blue. Similarly Colorado and Virginia look more purple with each passing cycle, though some reports indicate that Colorado is in more of an issue-dependent flux like Ohio than a demographic sea change.

AP Calling It for Obama

Carried on Real Clear Politics:

Barack Obama effectively clinched the Democratic presidential nomination Tuesday after a grueling marathon, based on an Associated Press tally of convention delegates, becoming the first black candidate ever to lead his party into a fall campaign for the White House.


* * *

The tally was based on public declarations from delegates as well as from another 15 who have confirmed their intentions to the AP. It also included 11 delegates Obama was guaranteed as long as he gained 30 percent of the vote in South Dakota and Montana later in the day. It takes 2,118 delegates to clinch the nomination.

TMV notes contrasting CBS reports. Donklephant "doesn't understand," possibly because he missed the bit about supers declaring anonymously to AP.

All of this sets up Hillary's much-anticipated address tonight.