Ms. Cafaro May Again Be Getting too Big for her Capris

PolitickerOhio reports today that State Sen. Capri Cafaro will be lobbying in Denver to position herself for a run at George Voinovich in 2010:

At the Democratic National Convention in Denver, keep an eye on the ambitious and affluent Capri Cafaro, who is expected to use the gathering of party insiders, activists and fundraisers as an opportunity to advance her next political move: a race for U.S. Senate in two years against GOP incumbent George Voinovich. A Democratic insider who is close to Cafaro says that the freshman State Senator is giving strong consideration to a statewide bid.

A quibble with Politicker's story. They note that Cafaro is "the favorite to win a full four-year term representing the 32nd district in November." Well, yes. Generally a candidate is the favorite when she has no opponent.

If she runs in 2012, she will do so having not won a contested election and having lost after pouring crazy money into two contests. By accounts she is having a decent run in the State Senate, but until she actually wins an election -- with the requisite becoming likable on the stump -- talk of a Senate run is woefully premature.

Jimmy DiMora in Context

I'll assume you haven't been in a coma the last few days and are aware of the massive raid on offices and homes in Cuyahoga County, and the public corruption investigation of Cuy. Co. Commissioner and Dem Party Chair Jimmy DiMora, among others.

Right now many shoes must drop before we know the nature of the wrongdoing and the extent of the corruption. In the meantime, this month's Governing magazine (via their blog) has an interesting article on federal investigation and prosecution of state and local corruption. After a set piece about ongoing prosecutions in Alabama, we get to the thesis:

There's no disputing that the feds are going after a lot of state and local officeholders these days. Since 2002, both the number of public corruption cases and the number of FBI agents devoted to such cases has increased by more than 50 percent. But is it because there's been a sudden spike of mischief in office? Or is it more an epidemic of prosecutorial zeal and ambition? Those are not easy questions to answer. But they're increasingly important to ask.

The article goes on to describe the possible partisan dimensions of the spike in prosecutions, some of the squishy Federal laws used and, most importantly, how states reform laws after a prosecution reveals corruption. Worth a read.

Rules Committee Is Done

Chris Cilizza has the specifics on Florida and Michigan. Hillary and uber-Clintonista Harold Ickes both supported the Florida compromise, but "bitterness" lingers over -- I'm not making this up -- four delegates in Michigan.

Remember that this is now about four delegates. Assuming Obama secures the nomination with a greater than eight delegate cushion (because that's the swing), remind the beings from Planet Hillary that their candidate endorsed Florida and only wanted an additional four delegates in Michigan. Then serve up a hot cup of STFU.

Oh, and while Ickes was, well, icky, I nominate former Michigan Gov. James Blanchard Asshat of the Day.

Widowfield Dropping Out of County Council Race

From today's Beacon:

Former state Rep. John Widowfield, who resigned from the Ohio House of Representatives on Wednesday, plans to withdraw from running for Summit County Council this fall.

Makes sense, since he has a serious scandal to contend with and could be indicted before the election. All that said, the stated reason strains credibility:

Summit County Republican Party Chairman Alex Arshinkoff said Widowfield told him a few weeks ago that he planned to drop out because of his new private-sector job.

Are you effing kidding me? He knocks off the only sitting R in County Council and the party is OK with him saying "Never mind?" Sorry, not buying it. This sounds like he saw the investigation coming and went scrambling for a golden parachute.

What's more, if true, the party is taking it's time dealing with it:

If Widowfield withdraws from the county council race, the county party will have until Aug. 20 to appoint a new candidate to run in the Nov. 4 election for county council's District 3 seat.

But of course that person needs to be gearing up to run against Paul Colavecchio who came within shouting distance of unseating Widowfield in 2006. In other words, someone with name recognition, campaign experience and a campaign infrastructure.

This will be something of a gut-check for the Summit Republicans. Tapping Louise Heydorn, the well-respected incumbent whom Widowfield unseated, would seem the logical choice. But Heydorn (or at least her husband) sided with the Coughlin camp in the Elephant Wars which brought this whole mess on in the first place. If nothing else, party boss Alex Arshinkoff is consistently vindictive. If Heydorn gets the nod, it's a safe bet that the Central Committee has gone against A²'s wishes. Longtime Alex watchers have been waiting for the revenge phase of the Elephant Wars. Passing on Heydorn would be a colorful start.

Rep. John Widowfield Stepping Down Due to Improprieties

Akron Beacon Journal is reporting tonight:

State Rep. John Widowfield, R-Cuyahoga Falls, is expected to resign from his legislative seat following accusations that he purchased Ohio State University football tickets with campaign funds and sold them for a profit.

Widowfield did not return multiple phone calls seeking comment Tuesday and today. He signed for gas mileage reimbursement for the week and attended a committee hearing in the morning, but was not at the House session in the afternoon.

Sources told the Beacon Journal that Widowfield sold the football tickets over the Internet for more than their face value, and pocketed the profits.

Widowfield's financial disclosure forms for the past two years list only his legislative salary and interest on checking and annuity accounts as sources of income.

Some reminders about John Widowfield. He ran unsuccessfully last year for Cuyahoga Falls Muni Clerk. Despite still having a term to go before bumping up against term limits, he is not running for re-election, he instead is running for the one spot on County Council currently occupied by a Republican.

He's also an Alex crony. Louise Heydorn, the woman he beat in the primary for County Council (as the Republican endorsee) is married to one of the attorneys who represented Kevin Coughlin in the Elephant Wars. And Widowfield famously did Alex's bidding as the county lobbied for new common pleas judgeships, even as the ABJ chanted "Who's yer daddy?" In sum, it looked like Alex has been looking for a soft landing for a valuable tool who hasn't done well in Columbus.

Meanwhile, Mike Moran has been mounting a strong challenge for his seat. Since Widowfield was already standing down, this changes the dynamic of that race but little. I believe the party gets to pick his replacement, but let me get back to you on that. If so, Robart Jr. will be running as a sort of incumbent. || UPDATE: I had forgotten that the younger Robart was upset in the primary by one Richard Nero. The replacement gets appointed by the House Republican Caucus. It would be interesting to see if Alex tries to orchestrate a coup of sorts and get Robart appointed and on the ballot. END UPDATE || On the other hand, the Republicans will have a harder time imposing their announced strategy of tying Dem candidates to recently disgraced Dems, at least in this race.

As for County Council, that's probably the least of his worries right now. From the looks of it, he's probably guilty of at least two campaign law violations.

Thus endeth the state career of Ohio's laziest legislator.

Dann Replacement: Jeff Has the Cordray Scenario

Jeff Coryell reports hearing the following scenario:

* Strickland's Chief Legal Counsel Kent Markus will be appointed interim Attorney General following Dann's resignation or removal but will not run for election in November;

* Treasurer Rich Cordray will run for Attorney General in the special election without giving up his current post; and,

* If Cordray wins the special election he will then give up his seat and Strickland will appoint a replacement, presumably a high-profile county treasurer and/or an officeholder with statewide campaign experience. From my northeast Ohio perspective, Cuyahoga County Jim Rokakis and Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher come immediately to mind but there are many others who would fit the bill.

That is consistent with the rumor I've heard, reported here. It's also amazingly good politics as Cordray is an unassailably solid candidate and the Dems risk only one seat instead of two. The only unfortunate aspects are A) that Cordray won't have six months or so to clean up Marc's Mess and B) Subodh isn't part of the mix.

Strickland Is up to Something; Is It Dann-Related?

This went up on Ohiodotcom Breaking News about an hour ago.

Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland has cancelled his visit today to Akron to speak at a conference of firefighters.

Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher will speak in his absence.

Strickland also has canceled a stop in Youngstown today, where he was scheduled to speak at a news conference. Chancellor Eric Fingerhut will attend instead.

"The governor decided he needs to be in Columbus today," Keith Dailey, spokesman for Strickland, said this morning.

Dailey said he plans to release more information around 11 a.m.[emphasis added]

That's "around" five minutes from now. Stay tuned.

Elephant Wars: Nasty, Brutish and Fat

How evil is Alex Arshinkoff? So evil hi can screw up a perfectly good case of Dem Schadenfreude. Ben Keeler reports of Alex's new low:

On Tuesday, Central Committee members all received a direct mailer. The piece in question stated that Arshinkoff ally and Ohio House member John Widowfield had introduced a bill part of which included that a section of Route 8 would be renamed for two soldiers who died in Iraq. The mailer falsely states, among many untruths, that the bill is being held up in the Ohio Senate by Kevin Coughlin. . . . Mr. Larry Lange has a new letter which he wants out for people to view. It can be seen here via PDF. Widowfield and Don Robart were at Lange's house, a man who lost his son overseas, until 11:30 PM Tuesday pleading with him to not write the second letter which corrects the record. Disgusting. The letter from Lange reminds people what this was all supposed to be about - honoring two fallen heroes - not politics. And most certainly not the Summit County GOP race.

Excuse me, I just threw up in my mouth a little.

The prevailing wisdom is that Alex has the votes. This is based both on the counts and on the fact that TeamCoughlin is arguing about the rules. As Ed Esposito says, the side that is arguing about the rules usually is behind. It will be pretty amazing if this latest stunt snatches defeat from the jaws of victory.

And if Alex prevails, he's pretty much guaranteed that the rift in the party cannot be bridged.

Elephant Wars: Arshinkoff Moves Against Tacky Restaurant

From TeamCoughlin today comes word that Arshinkoff is threatening the owner of Tangier, a.k.a. Vegas Without Slots:

The Chairman of the Summit County Republican Party has threatened to cancel the party's Central Committee organizational meeting at Akron's Tangier restaurant if his rival for the chairmanship is allowed to hold a reception on site.

Alex Arshinkoff called Tangier owner Ed George today, saying he would pull the Central Committee event scheduled for Wednesday March 30 unless George cancelled rival Carol Klinger's reception, scheduled just before the Central Committee meets. George informed Klinger by phone that her event was being cancelled.

The presser goes on to recount Arshinkoff's latest maneuvers. Matt Hurley has reproduced the entire thing, as does New Summit Repubs. (And yes, Ed George is her husband. For whatever reason, the Tangier finds itself as the focal point of many Akron dramas.)

First, the big news -- TeamCoughlin is emailing me again. Not sure to what I owe the honor.

More important -- what it all means. Like their arguments before, this latest example of Arshinkoff's high-handed, manipulative (and we can add "petty" to the list) cuts both ways. On the one hand, plenty of Republicans would like to be done with all this once and for all. It's a reminder to members of the Central Committee of what awaits any who oppose Alex if they are unsuccessful in the effor to unseat him.

Elephant Wars: Countdown to the Last Battle

The Summit County GOP has set the date for their Chairperson election. This Wednesday, April 30, the Central Committee votes by secret ballot.

Much of the politicking in these things is done behind the scenes so a party outsider like myself has little to go on (and the two sides have stopped emailing me, apparently tired of me mocking them both.) Ben Keeler, a local blogger active within the Coughlin camp, says that as best he can tell no one has a firm head count. Ben will try to offer on-scene reports next Wednesday night.

If it looks tied going in, Alex will win. As noted before, TeamCoughlin needs to convince the wobblers that he can win. I don't think anyone has faith that the secret ballot will actually remain secret if Alex wins.

All of which makes TeamCoughlin's latest public statement smell of desperation. Calling on someone to resign days before an election just sounds silly. But it's nice to know that Coughlin stands for cleaning up high school Spanish clubs.

Meanwhile, yesterday's ABJ fronted a major preview story along with a sidebar timeline yesterday about the dispute. Among other things, the story offers one answer to what happened to bring Arshinkoff so close to losing his seat:

But at some point in the last 10 years or so, Arshinkoff's adversaries claim, he changed.

They said he didn't deliver on promises in local campaigns. He cut off ties to his closest allies. He stopped listening to input.

"He's a different person," said Hoover, who was angered over Arshinkoff's handling of his unsuccessful campaign for county executive and his failed bid for county prosecutor.

"I don't really understand him. I have firsthand experience of him not keeping his word."

It's possible, but color me skeptical. Arshinkoff has always been high-handed, manipulative and vulgar. The problem began when he started losing, which had as much to do with the resurgence of the local Dems as anything Alex did or didn't do. In any event, people who put up with Arshinkoff up to a point started turning away. No one likes a high-handed, manipulative and vulgar loser. In event, maintaining that A² has changed is probably the best argument, though we haven't heard it much out here in the cheap seats.

Whatever happens, the final battle will not be the end of the story. Certainly if Alex retains his seat, his first priority will be vengeance upon those who sought to bring him down. Imagine a political equivalent of the last twenty minutes of any of the three Godfather movies. If TeamCoughlin wins, they will no doubt engage in some level of housecleaning, as they did (pending a court challenge) at the Board of Elections.

The result will be a weakened though possibly renewed Republican Party come this fall. And no one knows quite what that will mean.

OH Senate 28: Keiper Is Out.

As most of you know, Sen. Zurz was tapped by Strickland to head up the Department of Commerce. From the ABJ:

Portage County Commissioner Chuck Keiper withdrew his name from consideration to replace Kimberly Zurz in the Ohio Senate on Wednesday, stating he wants to devote more time to his ailing mother.

Keiper was considered a front-runner for the appointment, but the Portage County Democratic Party voted Wednesday evening instead to recommend state Rep. Kathleen Chandler, D-Kent.

The Senate District covers all of Portage County, southern Summit County and the east side of Akron.

So who, besides Chandler, is in the running?

The party is expected to consider a number of experienced politicians, including State Board of Education member Tom Sawyer, a former Akron mayor and state and federal lawmaker, as well as state Rep. Vernon Sykes, D-Akron.

County Councilwoman Paula Prentice is also on the list along with Eric Mansfield, a WKYC-TV reporter.

Russ Pry, the Summit County Democratic Party chairman, said Sawyer, Sykes and Prentice have expressed interest in the appointment, and Sykes would give him a final decision today.

What about the speculation that it was Portage County’s turn to pick a nominee?

Pry said the agreement between the two counties is not a certainty because the decision will be based on fielding the candidate with the highest name recognition who can raise the most money.

* * *

Wayne Jones, former state representative and Summit County Democratic Party chairman, said there was an agreement to defer to Portage County while Keiper was seeking the appointment, but that is no longer the case.

A couple notes on this that I’ve posted in comments on Psychobilly as this story unfolded. During the redistricting of 2000, the district got slanted more toward Summit Co. In 2000 about 48% of the votes came from Portage; in 2004 it was down to 44%.

I had a conversation with Sen. Kim Zurz at a fundraiser. She said the Reapportionment Board had attempted to make the 28th more of a swing district. Among other things they pulled in more of the independent-heavy precincts from South Akron, not knowing that Zurz is a native Akronite.

All that gives more juice to those pushing for a SummitCo. candidate, though many of the parts of Summit in the district are among those most like Portage Co.

Finally, you may not know it, but Sen. Zurz briefly tried her hand at blogging, which may make her the first Ohio legislator to do so.

Return of the SMH

She's baaaack. Jill first told us that Shopping Mall Heiress Capri Cafaro is in the mix for succeeding State Senator Marc Dann who was elected Attorney General. The party chairs for the two districts that comprise the district – Trumbull and Ashtabula – will turn in names to the Senate Dem Caucus which will make the ultimate decision.

Dann has endorsed Cafaro giving her the inside track. Interesting because as recently as two days ago he was quoted in the Ashtabula paper as saying he would stay out of the fray. A rival for the post, Rep. Sandra Stabile Harwood, says that Dann promised his endorsement would go to whoever helped his campaign the most. Um, Ms. Harwood, that would fall under the category of Statements Everyone Knows to Be True but Nobody Wants Said Out Loud.

Apparently I’m supposed to be annoyed by this. I’m not. First off, it would be pretty dickheaded of me to condemn Cafaro getting to the Statehouse since my position in the 13th Primary was that Cafaro should get her feet wet in the Statehouse before making a run at Congress. Avoiding dickheadedness is never a sufficient reason for me to hew to a position, but it’ll do for a makeweight.

Mostly I’m good with it because I think Capri would make a good legislator. She is smart, hard working and has a fair swatch of varied experience. Her flame burns too brightly to imagine her toiling as a researcher at a think tank or serving as a Legislative Assistant somewhere. If, as she says, she really desires a career in public service, it’s time to give her the chance.

The question remains whether this is a good move electorally. Only a fool would predict the climate in 2008, but safe to say it will not be the skating party for Democrats that the past election season was. Rivals are making dark noises about her father’s corruption conviction and association with Traficant. That’s not good, and probably is worse in Trumbull and Ashtabula than it would be in Mahoning where Traficant was more beloved and tolerated, and worse than in Lorain where he was just a guy people read about.

In addition, some of her comments in the paper suggest that Capri is not past the combative prickliness that turned so many around here off. No, she hasn’t threatened to sue anyone yet but her responses to charges that money plays a part in the decision have been shrill and petulant.

The district collectively went 59.4% for Kerry in ’04. It should be a safe seat. Cafaro is absolutely done if she gets appointed and loses it. She’ll have to work hard to keep it. If she’s smart, she’ll start a permanent campaign as soon as she’s appointed.

My guess: This is already wired. The Warren paper has a good rundown of the Family Cafaro’s generosity toward the various individuals and entities that will be making the decision. Capri may object to charges that the seat is being bought for her, but the seat is being bought for her. It just happens that she brings real talent to the job. Appointments going to contributors is a longstanding fact of politics. We’re big boys and girls; we can handle that. We're just happy when a patronage appointment goes to someone with actual ability.

The only remaining question – if the seat goes to Stabile Harwood instead of Cafaro, will Cafaro get the resulting vacant House seat?