Tuesday, July 03, 2007

Rothenberg: Ohio Is Lead Battleground State, Five Seats in Play

Rothenberg Politics Editor Nathan Gonzalez writes a "8 to watch in '08" preview. His first "Battleground state" is Ohio:

    The 2006 election results provided a mixed bag for Democrats. While taking over the governorship and knocking off Sen. Mike DeWine (R), they netted only one House seat. Currently, up to five House seats could be in play. Democrats are excited about two recruits: state Rep. Steve Driehaus, against Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st district, and state Sen. John Boccieri against Rep. Ralph Regula in the 16th district.

    In the 15th district, Franklin County Commissioners Paula Brooks and 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy will battle for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). And Democrats will target Rep. Jean Schmidt in the 2nd district, but she may not even make it out of the primary.

    Ohio’s 18th district, the seat of former Rep. Bob Ney (R) and now held by Rep. Zack Space (D), is a priority target for Republicans.
Nothing we didn't already know and he's a day late about Brooks. Still I like it when the nationals pay attention.

7 comments:

Jill said...

Any bets on whether he'll add in OH-14th with LaTourette and O'Neill?

Rich in Medina said...

It would be nice if the dems could find a candidate who actually is from the 16th district. Bocieri's residence will become an issue.

Pho said...

Jill:

Excellent question. I'd say it will happen when O'Neill starts raising some money and looking like a serious threat. The others on the list are on the radar screen because the incumbents either poll as vulnerable or, the case of the 16th, the incumbent looks like he will retire.

Rich:

I don't disagree, though I note that 1) John is a solid candidate and 2) he currently represents a fair chunk of the 16th now (basically the Alliance area) and 3) the bulk of Medina County was added into the 16th in the last redistricting and a lot of people there (well, at least those in my family) don't consider Regula to be "their" rep and are unlikely to regard Schuring as theirs either.

You can speak to the last point with probably a larger sample size.

OhioExile said...

I would think that since LaTourette managed to survive 2 of the worst years possible (wife issues 04, and anti-republican issues 06) I would assume that it would take more than just raising money to put him on an endangered list.

ohdave said...

Chabot is a horrible, horrible candidate. I don't know how he won last time. It's a golden pickup opportunity for the Dems if the party will sink some money into it.

Chris Baker said...

Concerning OH01, I've been banging the gong for a long time about the need for a serious shake up when it comes to the Hamilton County Democratic Party. They focused all their energy on the 1st and still got blown away, leaving Vic Wulsin right on the edge.

John Cranley's campaign was woefully ignorant of new media. For example, why would you invite Richard Clarke to speak for your candidate and not film it? He learned nothing from example set by Hackett and Wulsin.

Anonymous said...

I heard that OH 1 will have another person in that democratic primary.If he is the african-american guy that people told me about, then Driehaus may be in trouble. They say he is pro-choice (which Driehaus is not)and is impressive. With Obama and Hillary bringing out real dems there could be a surprise in this district.