Wednesday, November 30, 2005

OH-13: Others Testing Our Waters

The PD ran a story Sunday about possible contenders for the seat Sherrod Brown is vacating to run for Senate. They note Tom Sawyer's candidacy and list three other possibilities: Former State Rep. Wayne Jones from Akron, carpetbagging debutante Capri Cafaro* from Youngstown and Lorain Co. Commissioner Ted Kalo. I think (unfortunately) that the district is weighted more strongly toward Lorain Co., so of these Kalo has the best shot. This is especially true if Jones and Sawyer both run and split the Summit Co. vote. Plus it wouldn't take much for progressive activists in Summit to find someone they love more than Jones and Sawyer.

AFL-CIO Poohbah John Ryan notes (via Buckeye Politics) that teachers union lawyer Betty Sutton is considering a run. She is also a former state rep, but has been out for some time. She may benefit from being less intrinsically identified with a particular county (unlike Sawyer, Jones and Kalo) but still being from this area (unlike Cafaro).

It looks increasingly like my pining for a run by Summit Co. Council Pres Clair Dickinson was in vain.

The PD also speculates on possible Republican challengers. While they note Don Robart and Craig Foltin -- mayors of Cuyahoga Falls and Lorain, respectively -- demurring, they don't mention State Senator Kevin Coughlin. He's in the middle of his second -- and therefore last -- term. He's gotten media and party strokes as a young up-and-comer. He's from Summit and so would have the Alex Machine behind him. He's allegedly charismatic. I find him smarmy, but I usually find charismatic conservatives smarmy.

OH-13 is a near D lock in any year and it's hard to imagine a Republican picking it off next year. But Alex is quoted in the PD as saying he will field a candidate and Coughlin owes him big time for pulling out the stops to get him reelected in '92.

Other Republican possibilities might be former State Rep. Bryan "I'm Not Brian" Willams and former State Rep. Marilyn "I'm Married to Lynn" Slaby.

*See discussion in Comment regarding where Capri Cafaro is "from."


Anonymous said...

Cafaro is not from Youngstown! She is from the northern part of Trumbull County...

vivez le regionalism!!

scott bakalar said...

Ted Kalo, one of our Lorain County Commissioners, has been in local politics for a while, but is currently only 11 months into his first elected four year term.

He may be elect-able in some parts of Lorain County, but only beat his Republican challenger by a 9% margin last November. His newness to elected public office is what may hurt him in the district, not to mention that some of his Lorain County constituents may feel he hasn't completed the job they elected him to do.

Should be very interesting how all this turns out...

keng said...

If Cafaro is from "the northern part of Trumbull County," then that still supports Pho's claim of carpetbagging. As a pain-in-the-posterior geographer, I should point out that Trumbull county is still technically part of the Youngstown metro area (although the northern part is pretty sparsely populated). Also, I always thought that the Cafaros were from Niles, which is southern Trumbull and almost adjacent to Youngstown...

But I digress: I had something else in mind...didn't Sawyer lose in the 17th district after Trafficant's was eradicated? If that's the case, how is it that he isn't a carpetbagger himself by running in Brown's 13th district?

I'm a bit fuzzy on who represents which district at this point: I'm sorry for my confusion, but I've only lived in Akron since July...

Anonymous said...

On Coughlin, no way he runs for this. He's just become chairman of the Senate Health committee and probably won't leave. He runs for re-election next year to his last term.

I wouldn't be so quick to tie Arshnikoff to Coughlin. It's well known that they don't get along.

Coughlin's always been elected on his own without Arshnikoff's help, so the fat man has no hooks in him. The smarmy senator is the biggest horse Arshnikoff has, so they put on a good public front.

Anyway, the seat goes to the dems. Probably Kalo, but I bet Brown backs out of the Senate race and runs here again.

Pho said...

First off, thanks all for commenting. Good comments all around and a welcome change from the usual deafening silence.

Cafaro's bio in Wiki says only that she was born in Youngstown -- probably why the PeeDee sited her there. During the '04 election she was living in Hunting Valley in Cuy. County. Obviously she needs to move south/west to locate in OH-13.

Sawyer has always been an Akron guy. He represented all of Akron when all of Akron was in OH-14. He physically lives in the part of Akron now in OH-17. He'll have to somehow establish residence in West Akron or beyond to be in OH-13.