Tuesday, April 22, 2008

Final PA Predictions

Over at Pollster.com we get this assessment of the polling trends:

    Clinton has increased her lead in the trend estimates over the course of the last polls to 6.6 points using the standard estimator, and to 8.4 points using the sensitive estimate. Last minute polls have given her bigger margins.

    Now the key question is whether undecideds push her over a 10 point win, or whether increases in turnout by new "unlikely" voters raises Obama's total.
My guess is the latter. First, the weather is nice. More importantly, Obama's money and grassroots volunteer strength hopefully have translated to a superior GOTV organization.

While Team Hillary has run out the same "If he doesn't win he's a loser" argument they threw against the wall before Ohio, I hope the media maintains a realistic BTE/WTE. Right now the line is a 7-8% Hillary advantage. Six or less is BTE for Obama; I'll put my final prediction at five. Anything over nine is WTE and makes closing that much harder.

Once again Obama had a chance to put Hillary away and once again he has let her up off the mat, this time with his ill-advised speculation about bitter Pennsylvanians. Whatever spin Ohio bloggers may want to put on it, he gaffed in a bad way and will have to make his case in Denver as a result.


54cermak said...

After he sweeps IN and NC in 2 weeks, the rationale for HRC staying in the race is threadbare at best.

Ben said...

I think it is just as important to see how the media spins it as well.