Thursday, May 10, 2007

WH 08: Hillary. Can't. Win.

The latest Dem primary poll was this week's Rassmussen showing Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-Wherever) widening her lead over Sen. Barack Obama.

The result in that poll that should give everyone pause is the favorable/unfavorable rating. You can check out Rassmussen for now or click below the enlarge the excerpt when Rassy's has taken it down.

Sen. Clinton has an unfavorable rating of 49%. That's huge. She beats Obama, the next worst, by 12 points. The distance in unfavorables between Clinton and Obama (49-37) is greater than the distance between Clinton and Bush (49-60). Among the serious candidates, her rating among moderates beats only Biden. In the matchups, she never tops 50%, whereas Obama and Edwards each nudge above 50 against some candidates.

All of this is based on what people know and remember about Sen. Clinton now. This is before the real negative campaign begins. This is before anyone ads to the twenty four books against her or reanimates the books already on the shelves. This is while the righties against her are moderating their bashing because they want her above everyone else to get the nomination.

49% disapproval means two things. First, there isn't much room for her to grow a voting bloc. If that holds -- and it generally does -- she has 51% of the voting population to work with. Second, it's another quantum of evidence suggesting that Clinton will mobilize a conservative base that is currently demoralized by the failures of the Bush administration and unimpressed with its slate of candidates.

I don't dislike Clinton. In fact, I think she gets a bad wrap. But it doesn't matter. She can't win. Let's nominate someone else. Please.


Anonymous said...

I couldn't agree more. The Republicans would be thrilled if Clinton is the Dem nominee. Still the hope we may have going for us is that there is no one single Republican candidate that looks like a winner in their bunch. Just like the Republicans hoping for Clinton, those of us on the left can only hope that Guilliani becomes the republican nominee. I think Clinton might beat him but I would fret about that race.
I suppose Gore would be the wild card.
I also worry that Obama can't win

Village Green said...

Hillary gets a bad veggie wrap?

Personally, I think Hillary can beat the pants off any Republican and I think this every time I read people going gaga over polls that essentially mean nothing at this point.

But right now, I'm all Mike Gavel until the primary season is over. Then I'll be glad to support Hillary. Phooey on all the nay-sayers. Oops, no pun intended there, Pho.

Scott Piepho said...

Matchup polls at this remove mean nothing, I agree. They mean nothing because so many people havent' made up their mind, and because only us junkies are paying attention to all this.

Diapproval numbers have weight, however. And they especially have weight when the numbers say 50% approve, 49% disapprove. Most people have made up their mind about Hillary and almost half don't like her.

And there is another number out there equally relevant -- the percentage of voters who would walk through the fires of Hell to vote against her. A number smaller than 49%, but highly relevant. A number of cultural conservatives that might stay home if the Republcans nominate any of their top three will come out in droves if we nominate Hillary.

Who can't win, if I failed to mention that.

Kyle said...

Pho, good points. I agree.