Tuesday, January 08, 2008

Watching New Hampshire

It's 9:50, the results are half in and Hillary is bouncing between a 2 and 4 percent lead. With that, CNN is not calling the race. I'm guessing the network's exit poll shows Obama winning. Given the sea change, though, it's hard to put much hope in polls.

Changing the media's favored narrative, but here's a try. Hillary as the Comeback Kid is ridiculous. She was SUPPOSED to win New Hampshire. Bill Clinton is wildly popular among New Hampshire Dems and has been camped there for months. Two weeks ago, and almost without exception before that, her lead was double digits. That lead evaporated. She wasn't down, then prevailed, she blew a lead and (to some extent) recovered.

Jeffrey Toobin on CNN raised a good point -- Dem turnout was huge, Repub turnout was down. Dems are in good shape for the general, though I still question whether Hillary is electable in the general.

10:45 CNN is reporting that AP is calling it for Clinton, but that they are "unprepared" to do so. I can't wait to see their exit poll results.

I never considered Arkansas part of the "deep south," but Huckabee referred to it as such.

10:34. NBC just declared for Clinton. And Chris Matthews calls it a "stunning upset." If UNC falls behind North Carolina A&T, then ekes out a win, it's not a "stunning upset." It's a close call for a heavy favorite.

All that said and notwithstanding the asinine media narrative, tonight certainly let Hillary off the matt. It would be nice if someone could dig into how it happened. Did the Clinton campaign turn out the vote better? Did the "likely voter" panels wash out people who ended up showing up? Unfortunately, it's now an accepted fact that Hillary won by tearing up at a diner yesterday. Move on to South Carolina where the winner will be the candidate who says the nicest things about low country shrimp or some such.

Will Richardson bow out now? Edwards says he's in it to the end -- translation: he's in it until he gets blown out in So. Carolina.

10:46. CNN finally calls it.

2 comments:

Dave P. said...

very well said, pho. especially in regard to the "asinine media narrative."

Ben said...

You might be right about the fact she should have won from the beginning, but the way the expectations were, she came out a huge winner.