Jim Renacci Loses Dealership; Incoherently Politicizes It

Republican Congressional Candidate Jim Renacci has announced that his GM dealership in Wadsworth will close. OK, not so much "announced" as "turned into a bizarre, internally contradictory campaign talking point." His press release, reproduced here on ANN, asserts the following:

The GOP candidate for the 16th Congressional District is closing the doors to his Wadsworth car business -- a casualty, he says in a news release, of GM's deal with Uncle Sam.

Today, Jim Renacci announced that his Wadsworth Chevrolet dealership, which was targeted for closure following the government takeover of General Motors in 2009, will close its doors next month. Renacci was first notified in May of 2009 that the dealership was one of over a thousand nationwide that would be terminated.


* * *

Renacci stepped in and acquired it in an effort to save local jobs and shortly thereafter he successfully stabilized the once troubled business. Nevertheless, Renacci's franchise was ultimately dismantled as a result of the government takeover of GM.

"When the Obama administration first made clear its intention to take over General Motors and to dictate to small business owners whether or not they could continue to operate privately owned businesses"”which in some cases had been their family's livelihood for over 50 years, I feared we were witnessing one of the darkest days in American capitalism. And today, as I was forced to face my employees and tell them that we lost the fight and they've lost their jobs"”it was clear that my fears were not misplaced. Despite my best efforts, I was unable to overcome the government's "˜restructuring plan' from the outside"”but I am now left even more committed to restructuring our government's plans from the inside," Renacci said.

Wow. We have so much wrongness here it's like on of those "How many mistakes can you find in this picture" puzzles.

Take just the opening graf in which he claims the dealership is a casualty of GM's deal with the government. I think he's overstating the extent to which the government dictated dealer closures as a condition of the bailout. It's more like the bailout enabled closures that the company wanted to make. When the closures were announced, it was GM brass insisting that they needed to trim their overextended dealer network to cut costs and right size the company. It's car companies that are now fighting state efforts to pass dealer protection laws.

But more fundamentally than that, if GM hadn't made the "deal with Uncle Sam" Renacci would have lost his franchise anyway because there wouldn't be a GM any more. The choice wasn't between a bailout and running the company a different way, it was between a bailout and no more GM. Most of the time when Republicans criticize the bailout they are at least honest enough to acknowledge that GM would have gone bust, they just dispute the administration's assessment that it would have wrecked the economy.

The coherent criticisms of the bailouts have either maintained that free market principles are so important that the risk of big firms folding is worth it, or argued that the bailouts were too kind to the companies -- that they didn't put austerity conditions on the bailed out firms. Renacci seems to have found a third way -- the government should cut spending everywhere except that it should provide unconditional bailouts where they would benefit him personally.

Finally Renacci's little snit goes against his whole campaign theme. In his latest KNR ads he avers that when times are tough, you have to tighten your belt. Well, if GM is going to tighten its belt, it needs to shed some tonnage. Belt tightening isn't as much fun to talk about when you are the fat that gets trimmed, eh Jim?

Credit where it's due, at least he didn't revive the debunked conspiracy theory about only Republican dealerships getting axed.

In case you thought Milo Minderbinder in Catch-22 was too broad brush, no. He's alive and well and running for Congress in the Ohio 16th.

Ralph Regula (R-Canton) Coming to Akron Press Club

Congressman Ralph Regula, the outgoing and longtime representative of Ohio's 16 district, will speak at the Akron Press Club this Friday, Dec. 12. Lunch begins at 11:45. Details here.

Voinovich's Red Cape

Did Sen. George Voinovich just announce that he will retire after this term? What he said is:

"We're going to have to raise more money in this country. Did you hear me? We're going to have to increase taxes in order to do the job," Sen. Voinovich said. "Anyone that tells you that's not the case isn't being truthful with you. They're not being intellectually honest with you. [From an ODP presser quoting Gongwer]

But in the modern Republican Party, that's tantamount to declaring you no longer want to be an elected official. Voinovich is waving a red cape in the face of the dominant economic conservative wing of the party, begging for a primary challenge. The sound you hear is a hundred right wing Ohio electeds stampeding to get on the phone with Club for Growth and ask for their blessing.

Ohio 16: Schuring's Near Miss; ABJ's Bad Call

Ohio dot com still (at 8:56) has Matt Miller beating Kirk Schuring in the GOP primary for the 16th Congressional District. The SOS site shows that Schuring pulled well ahead, apparently sometime in the night, 47%-42% (if you would rather add than scroll down, the county breakdown is here.) Canton Rep. also has the correct results.

A Miller win would have been a major blow to Republican prospects for holding onto the seat. Schuring is a nice guy moderate with cross-aisle appeal throughout Stark County. Miller is a hard right conservative who vowed to run on immigration as "the biggest threat America is facing" in a heavily agricultural district, no less. Also, Schuring is a Stark County native. While Boccieri represents part of Stark County as State Senator, he is from Mahoning.

So it looks now, notwithstanding the ABJ's miscall, that it will be Boccieri versus Schuring as we all expected.

Meanwhile, a funny thing happened after Mary Cirelli announced for the Democratic nomination -- absolutely nothing. She raised negligible money, campaigned hardly at all and mustered an anemic 36%. One would be tempted to speculate that she entered as a stalking horse candidate to allow Boccieri to get his name out, especially outside Stark where he campaigned pretty hard. One be tempted to, but Mary Cirelli is not that kind of team player. I've worked with her before and she is an irascible contrarian, often at odds with her party.

It's doubtful Cirelli was trying to help Boccieri, but help him she did; he netted more votes than the top two Republicans combined. Given the asymmetric campaigns on the top of the ballot, that's not much of a portent, but it does demonstrate how valuable having a primary contest can be.

UPDATE: No sooner did I hit "post," but Ohio dot com ripped down their erroneous story. Here's the screen shot of the original:

FactCheck Takes on Ohio 10

Apparently because Dennis ran for President Annenberg's FactCheck dot org takes on Joe Cimperman's claims against him in the Congressional primary. I'm not convinced by their argument about Dennis's relative effectiveness, but the fisking on FactCheck is a better place to start than comparing the campaign lit from either side.

Not that it matters. As a veteran observer recently told me, 40% of the Democrats in his district would vote for Dennis's corpse.

Swing State Proj: OH-2 One of 18 GOP Seats Where Dems Hold $ Edge

Whether or not the Ohio Second contest is the worst on the map this cycle, it is noteworthy for another reason. Challenger Dr. Victoria Wulsin has a significant money edge over incumbent/presumptive nominee "Mean" Jean Schmidt. According to Swing State Project, "physician Victoria Wulsin has $344,315; Schmidt lags with $124,857."

By "has" I assume SSP means cash-on-hand per the latest round of finance reports. This makes the race one of 18 where a Democrat holds a funding edge for a seat currently held by a Republican. Further, only one Dem incumbent is behind a Republican challenger.

It's surprising that Ohio 15 (Mary Jo Kilroy v. Steve Stivers for Deborah Pryce's seat) or Ohio 16 (John Boccieri v. Kirk Schuring for Ralph Regula's) are on the list. They were noted for raising major jack last go-round. If I had time it would be a research project, but someone else will have to take it from here.

Show Some Third Quarter Love to a Congressional Candidate

Tomorrow night marks the end of the third quarter reporting period for political campaigns. If you have any notion to help one of the Ohio Congressional candidates, this would be a good time to do it. The more the campaigns raise at this remove from the election, the more they look viable to the big money. If we want Dem funders and DCCC to take Ohio races seriously, we need to show they are serious.

Here are the candidates who seem to be in the best position to make use of some early dough:

Bill O'Neill, 14th District.
O'Neill was an appellate court judge until he stepped down to take a run at Steve LaTourette in the Fourteenth. He's also the 2006 candidate for the Supreme Court who vowed to take no campaign contributions from anyone. My friend Jeff Coryell was there when O'Neill Met the Bloggers and reported that this is a serious race. The district has some swing potential, loaded as it is with suburban independents, and O'Neill has the chops to give LaTourette his biggest challenge in years.

Rosemary Palmer, 10th District.
Recently a commenter snidely pointed out that the reason Dennis Kucinich won't debate his challenger is that he is running for President. Um, he's running for Congress as well. And if he isn't, he'd better note that he has opponents who are. Of the two, I like the notes Palmer is hitting -- basically she and Dennis agree on many issues, but she is more interested in actually improving things than grandstanding. It's like she was trying to appeal to a militant pragmatist or something.

John Boccieri, 17th District.
State Sen. and Air Force Reserve Major John Boccieri is running for Ralph Regula's seat. Depending on what day you read the paper, Boccieri will run against Regula, OR the seat will be vacated by Regula's retirement and State Sen. Kirk Schuring will run, OR he'll run against the winner of a bruising primary between Schuring and State Rep. Scott Oelslager OR the Republicans could face a three way primary if term-limited Sen. Ron Amstutz enters and Amstutz could sneak in as the two Stark County. In any event, the Dems have one candidate and he's a solid guy with party support behind him.

I give honorable mention to Mary Jo Kilroy and Dave Woolever. Kilroy would make the list if she actually had an opponent. Woolever might if he didn't -- he's a much more interesting candidate if the incumbent holding the seat makes good on his retirement talk.

So you have three solid candidates who can build effective campaigns if the money comes in now. Surf over and give generously. And when the Ohio congressional delegation turns blue, you can say you helped out back when.

Dennis Kucinich Is Completely Shameless.

Congressman and presidential campaign hobbyist Dennis Kucinich (D-Candyland) is at it again. He still has not responded to a debate challenge from his Congressional primary opponent, Rosemary Palmer. But that doesn't stop him from pitching a hissy about being excluded from Iowa events.

Kucinich has famously concentrated his Presidential nomination strategy on winning New Hampshire. As a result of that and the fact that he isn't raising money or hiring staff, he has no presence in Iowa. Organizations hosting campaign events set rules that candidates must have a presence in Iowa. Kucinich doesn't so he doesn't get invited. Then he tosses his hissy and everyone walks away happy. DK gets free pub and the rest get a Dennis-free event.

The latest character in the ensemble is AARP which is co-hosting a candidate forum, along with Iowa Public Television. According to Kucinich, he is getting snubbed because AARP is too cozy with insurance companies:

Kucinich sees something darker at play. As his campaign explains it, AARP's partnership with private health insurers will generate $4 billion in revenues for the organization over seven years. Kucinich wants to take profits -- and premiums, deductibles and co-payments -- out of the equation. In a Kucinich White House, he says, there would be health coverage for all.

So AARP is excluding him from its forum, he says, because it has "a $4 billion vested interest in preserving the role of private, for-profit insurance companies in the health care industry."

Yes Dennis , everyone with a stake in the status quo is scared of you. That's why you don't get invited to things -- because they are afraid you're going to win. After all, you are only a couple appearances in Iowa away from breaking the psychologically important five percent barrier.

BREAKING: Ron Amstutz May, Um, Do Something.

I'm puzzling through the first few grafs of today's Dennis Willard piece on state Sen. Ron Amstutz.

COLUMBUS: State Sen. Ron Amstutz, R-Wooster, has been in the Ohio General Assembly for 27 consecutive years, longer than anyone else in the legislature.

And his tenure has no end in sight, although he faces term limits in the Senate at the end of 2008.

Amstutz could return to the Ohio House, where he spent 20 years before term limits forced him to run for the Ohio Senate in 2000. Or he might get into the U.S. House race should Rep. Ralph Regula, R-Navarre, retire.

State Sen. J. Kirk Schuring, R-Jackson Township, is also exploring a run for the Regula seat, and Amstutz admits he would be at a financial and demographic disadvantage in a congressional run.

Amstutz has been a subject of conjecture for some time. Even before Rep. Ralph Regula (R-Navarre) started making noises about retiring, Amstutz was touted as a possible candidate in the 16th. Now he might be running. Or maybe not. He definitely will continue in elected office. Unless he decides not to. Glad we cleared that up.

If Amstutz does run, he may find himself in a three-way primary with State Sen. Kirk Schuring and Rep. Scott Oelslager. If Oelslager indeed gets in the race, things will be difficult for both he and Schuring. The two are so much alike in both voting record and temperament that the race could get nasty only because the two have no other way to make their case that tear the other guy down. Amstutz could well sneak in the side door as he takes Wayne and the two Stark Co. candidates split their mutually held bases.

And all of that could only benefit Dem. candidate John Boccieri. Amstutz is considerably more conservative than Schuring and Oelslager, holding to a rural cultural conservatism that plays badly with the independent and moderate Repubs in much of the district.

The rest of the piece is a pretty straightforward and fairly balanced profile. Amstutz is conservative, but works with Strickland. He has some legislative accomplishments but "unfortunately" is linked to the stripper bill movement which has splashed silly on all players. Etc. It's not bad as a reference piece should Amstutz become a player in the national fight over Congress. But as an update on what his intentions are, apparently we are still waiting.

Kucinich's Dilemma

Dennis Kucinich loves debates. Debate debate debate. It's the essence of democracy and all that. Recall that he slammed the Dem field for turning down Republican house organ Fox Noise as a primary debate monitor and he got his underoos in a bunch when Hillary and Edwards were caught on mic discussing how to slim down the debate fields.

Of course, he's really all about Presidential primary debates. Congressional debates, maybe not. He famously refused to debate his '06 primary opponent Barbara Anne Ferris and general opponent Republican Mike Dovilla.

So now he has a dilemma. Today his primary opponent this year, Rosemary Palmer, has challenged him to debates:

Rosemary Palmer, candidate for the Democratic nomination for the 10th Congressional District of Ohio, today issued a challenge to her opponent, six-term incumbent Dennis Kucinich. At a press conference held this morning in downtown Cleveland, Ms. Palmer challenged Mr. Kucinich to a series of five debates. Palmer proposed to focus each debate on a particular issue area including economic development and foreign policy. “I have formally submitted this challenge to Mr. Kucinich’s office. I eagerly await his response, and frankly expect him, as a democratically elected official, to accept the challenge and appreciate the opportunity to address the people he claims to represent,” Palmer said.

* * *

Kucinich, no stranger to debate challenges, has issued a number of statements lamenting his exclusion from the limelight of the presidential campaign. Following reports that his presidential primary opponents were conspiring to limit his exposure at debate appearances, Mr. Kucinich was quoted as saying “Imperial candidates are as repugnant to the American people and to our democracy as an imperial president.” In light of her newly issued challenge, Palmer countered, “Now that this challenge has been issued, we shall soon know if we have an imperial and repugnant Congressman".

So what is a gadfly to do? Not only does he risk raising her profile by agreeing to debate, he has to take time away from his quest for the Presidential nomination which he really is just that close to clinching. At the same time, he has raised such a fuss about debates in the primary, any refusal to debate Palmer would certainly loose the media hounds on him.

We'll see if he responds.

Meet Dave Woolever, Candidate in Ohio Seventh

Dave Woolever is a small businessman running against Rep. Dave Hobson (R-Springfield) in Ohio's Seventh Congressional District. If all that sounds familiar, it's because Hobson has made noises about retiring.

Now he has an intriguing candidate ready to either run against him or his would-be successor. And it appears Woolever will be running hard. From the presser:

"For far too long, Representative Hobson has avoided a serious challenge for his seat. It is time that he be called to task for the bad votes and misspent money in Washington." Woolever says that the biggest issues facing seventh district voters are the war in Iraq, the economy, trade and homeland security.

"Hobson has been in the pocket of high priced lobbyists since he arrived in Washington,” Woolever said. “While he has been showered in their money, the special interests have been rewarded with a prescription drug bill that mainly benefited the big drug companies, handouts to big oil companies making billions of dollars of profits on the backs of his constituents, and policies that reward companies who move jobs out of our country."

According to his website bio, Woolever is a lifelong resident of Pickaway County -- one of the rural counties that round out the Seventh. He got some college credits and went to work in manufacturing, only to have his job NAFTA'd out in 1992. He got a second job at an RCA plant, then saw signs that it too would soon be gone (and by the way, he was right.)

He looks to be the kind of regular guy/economic populist candidate that has been doing well for Democrats in rural areas. Think Ted Strickland, John Tester, Heath Shuler. Too soon to say whether Woolever is cut from the same cloth, but the pattern is familiar. For instance, here is the conclusion to his website bio:

Dave is a member of the National Rifle Association, the American Motercyclist Assocation and the National Hot Rod Association. An active musician, he plays the guitar, piano and drums, he is also an avid motorcycle rider and a former muscle/antique car collector.

Dave has been a supporter of several charities including the American Cancer Society and Citizens for Clean Air and Water. As a former union member Dave is a proud supporter of organized labor.

And OK I have to say it. Regular guy or not I can't love the look. Dude. I just revisited the Eighties and they are seriously pissed that you won't give their look back.

Meaningless snark aside, it's good to see Dems taking on the race. If Hobson does indeed decide to retire, it should be interesting. Woolever's anti-Hobson talking points will translate well if Hobson's protege is tapped to take his place. Perhaps even better as he could then style it as a run against the machine. If Hobson is in, it's a tough fight for Woolever, but the RCCC will have a battle in a district that has been a gimmie for years.

Congress '08: Another Ohio Retiree?

A favorite sport in Washington these days is spotting the Republican retirees. With majority days behind them, many Republican lawmakers are cashing in their chips and others are rumored. Here in Ohio, Deborah Pryce has announced her retirement and Ralph Regula sounds like he's on his way out. Now the Springfield News-Sun is speculating that the Seventh District's David Hobson (R-Springfield) is also considering calling it quits.

Hobson is 70, a ex-military man, pro-defense but all in all an apparent moderate. In the last election he was opposed by William Conner, also retired Air Force who, as a political novice in a well-drawn Republican district, managed almost 40% of the vote. Connner says he plans to run again. It's a long shot, but if Conner runs as a hawkish D and an outsider, he may be able to swipe another seat.

According to the Sun-News, the Republicans may run State Sen. Steve Austria who is term-limited and a close ally of Hobson. Having a successor waiting in the wings may make it easier for Hobson to walk. In any event, another district in play will make things more fun all around.

Ohio Redistricting and the Future of Congress

The National Journal is running a story about one of my favorite political junkie parlor games -- Whither Redistricting? I haven't read the premium NatJo piece (because I don't subscribe) but this Openers piece and this by Eric Mansfield each touch on the highlights, particularly the importance the author places on Ohio.

Much of the piece deals with the states like Ohio that are set to lose seats to redder states like Texas and Georgia. In addition, if you go to the front page of the NatJo website and click through the link to the Interactive Graphic, then roll over Ohio you get this speculation about us Buckeyes:

Elected last November, Democratic Gov. Ted Strickland is quite popular. If his job-approval rating remains high, he'll easily win re-election in 2010. Republicans could lose their majorities in the Legislature, although they held them in 2006, a difficult year. The outcome depends on whether Democrats take control of both chambers. If they do, expect partisan redistricting with a vengeance.

While he is right that the Dems can't redistrict with a vengeance without taking the whole General Assembly, I don't think the opposite is true. I don't think the Republicans maintain status quo or saddle the Dems with both seat losses if they don't lose the GA -- which is fortunate because that's unlikely to happen. The snippet on the public section of the site does not discuss the alchemy between Congressional redistricting -- done by the state legislature -- and reapportioning the state legislative districts -- done by the Apportionment Board.

Currently Dems hold a 3-2 advantage on the Apportionment Board with the Governor, Secretary of State and one legislative representative to the Republicans' Auditor plus one legislative rep. While it is true that the Repubs in the GA could screw the Dems out of two U.S. House seats. the Dems on the Apportionment Board could respond in kind and tilt the state legislative map radically toward the Dems.

What we have is actually potentially exciting: a divided government that invites compromise which may lead to more balanced districts. Yes, it may also lead to lots of deal making that protects powerful incumbents and punishes mavericks in both parties, but let me dream a little. I just finished the Potter book and I'm feeling all magical.

Assuming the alignment stays the way it is -- and barring a disaster for one side or the other, it is likely to -- my prediction is that the compromise will zero out one Dem district and one Republican. It may also be balanced geographically, with one gone in Northeast Ohio and one in Southwest.

From there, it's anyone's guess how each party makes the decision about who goes. My guess is that the factors determining who will be the sacrificial lamb will include some mix of the following: 1) Rep. is a weak campainger unlikely to win in a new district, 2) Rep. has a weak legislative record 3) Rep. is unpopular in the state party either because of the the above or
because he/she doesn't dance or both.

Aside from that, I'm less interested in making predictions than hearing what others have to say. Feel free to either speculate on how the decisions are made or who gets cut or both.

Kucinich's Primary Challenger: Rosemary Palmer

Dennis Kucinich may not be running what anyone would call a real campaign in his latest run at the Democratic Presidential Primary, but he may need to run a real campaign next year to keep his Congressional seat. He certainly has a real challenger.

Rosemary Palmer has credibility as a candidate of the anti-war left. She runs as a political outsider who tragically lost her son in Iraq. Her platform could be called pragmatic progressivism. In other words, she's more interested in a compromise that makes things better than taking all-or-nothing stand that maintains the status quo.

OK, she certainly has my attention.

Now she's assembled a team of campaign veterans, including BlueOhioan founder Anthony Fossaceca as campaign manager. She also has hired Michael Chaney as finance director and Michael Gillis on communications. Anthony has been emailing bloggers about the race for a couple of weeks now. One of the hoped-for lessons of the '06 campaign is that it's OK to be an outsider if you hire people who really know how to do politics and listen to them. And by the way, Ms. Palmer is currently a student at the Bliss Institute.

A primary campaign poses a number of challenges for Kucinich. While he's currently content to hang with fellow travelers in New Hampshire, Ms. Palmer is campaigning here and has a message that will resonate with those Democrats in the district who vote for Kucinich only because he's the D on the ballot.

And this is a primary campaign so Kucinich can't just wait around for his inevitably national loss and campaign the following fall. He has to

Then there is the matter of debates. As Ben aptly pointed out Kucinich took his hurt puppy act to the cable shows when Hillary and Edwards were overheard supposedly trying to shut him out of debates, but he refused to debate his opponent in '06. After the fuss he just raised, he will be hard pressed to refuse to debate this cycle.

I have no idea if support for Kucinich in his district is soft enough to Palmer to have a shot. But in any event, it's nice to know that from here on when he pulls crap like this, he may suffer actual political consequences.

Rothenberg: Ohio Is Lead Battleground State, Five Seats in Play

Rothenberg Politics Editor Nathan Gonzalez writes a "8 to watch in '08" preview. His first "Battleground state" is Ohio:

The 2006 election results provided a mixed bag for Democrats. While taking over the governorship and knocking off Sen. Mike DeWine (R), they netted only one House seat. Currently, up to five House seats could be in play. Democrats are excited about two recruits: state Rep. Steve Driehaus, against Rep. Steve Chabot in the 1st district, and state Sen. John Boccieri against Rep. Ralph Regula in the 16th district.

In the 15th district, Franklin County Commissioners Paula Brooks and 2006 nominee Mary Jo Kilroy will battle for the Democratic nomination to face Rep. Deborah Pryce (R). And Democrats will target Rep. Jean Schmidt in the 2nd district, but she may not even make it out of the primary.

Ohio’s 18th district, the seat of former Rep. Bob Ney (R) and now held by Rep. Zack Space (D), is a priority target for Republicans.

Nothing we didn't already know and he's a day late about Brooks. Still I like it when the nationals pay attention.

Boccieri Kick-off by Pho and CQPolitics

That was fast. The kick-off rally for State Sen. John Boccieri's campaign for the 16th Congressional district ended at around 4:00. CQ Politics has their article up now, at 8:15.

The CQ piece notes Strickland's appearance and the Senator's admonition that the troops should be brought home "safely, honorably and soon."

A few other observations from the day. In addition to Stickland, State Treasurer Richard Cordray and Stark County Dem Chair Johnnie Maier helped introduce him. In addition to them, state legislators Capri Cafaro, Steve Dyer and Mark Okey were there. And many of the usual Stark County suspects: Clerk of Courts Phil Giavasis, Canton Law Director Joe Martuccio, North Canton Chief of Staff Earle Wise and staff reps from the Stark County Prosecutor's office also attended.

All of which is to say, yes this is the hot race of the moment.

Back to the CQP article. They are cautiously bullish on Boccieri's chances:

The district in which the two seek to run is located in northeast Ohio and includes the city of Canton. Though the region has a long Republican tradition, it is not quite an overwhelming GOP stronghold these days. District voters favored President Bush in 2004, but his 54 percent to 46 percent edge over Democrat John Kerry was fairly modest.

So how did Boccieri do? His kick-off speech was OK, but just OK. It included a few problematic word choices and the Hoover backdrop was a less-than-perfect fit for his fair trade/economic populist message.

I got to listen in on press availability time and he was stronger there. A reporter asked if trade was the reason for the Hoover closing and he laid out a reasonable case that trade policies are indirectly responsible.

Working the room afterward Boccieri hit stride. As someone who has trouble working the room at his own birthday party, I'm always amazed to watch someone do it well and Boccieri is a pro. If Regula stays in the race, Boccieri will run him from one end of the district to the other and will make friends at every stop.

I'm having digital camera issues. If I got decent shots I'll post them. If not, not. Also, keep an eye on Ohio Daily as YDS was there.

Stark Raving Ambiguity UPDATED

Questions about next year's Congressional race in the 16th District are turning into a soap opera. Last night Admin at BSB found a Google hit for a Canton Rep. story entitled "Regula Running After All." The link is dead. Admin is working to track it down.

Meanwhile, the morning papers clarify how murky the picture is. Schuring says he is setting himself up to run if Regula decides to retire. From the Rep:

Running for the office is "something I would consider if Congressman Regula does decide not to run," Oelslager said. "I am patiently waiting to see what he wants to do. He's done a great job, and I respect the work he's done."

Schuring said he told Regula of his plans to form a committee.

"The congressman knows we're doing this and gave his permission," Schuring said. "I am running in concert with his making a decision. If he decides to run, I would take whatever political apparatus I have and fold it into his."

And just in case you a blogger trying to read the tea leaves:

Schuring said there is no hidden message suggesting Regula should retire.

Still not convinced? Here's Schuring in the ABJ:

Regula, who turns 83 later this year, is undecided about running for re-election, according to Schuring.

Schuring has registered with the Federal Election Commission to establish a congressional exploratory committee for the 16th Congressional District, which includes Stark, Wayne and portions of Ashland and Medina counties.

"It is important that there be a candidate and an organization in place to run for the seat in the event the congressman decides to retire," Schuring said in a prepared statement.

It's just about being ready. Nothing against Ralph. Really. OK, Mr. Skeptic, check out the Massillon Independent:

“I’m a big supporter of Congressman Regula,” Schuring said. “The purpose of this committee is to do the exploratory work to prepare for a potential campaign if – and it is a big if – the congressman decides not to run.”

Schuring said he has been in communication with Regula and the congressman has not made up his mind yet about 2008.

“The 2008 election is a presidential year,” Schuring explained. “The primary has been moved up from May to March. That means the filing deadline is less than six months away. That is why it is important to form this committee now – to build a strong grass roots network of support.

“It is important that a candidate and an organization be in place in the event the congressman decides to retire.”

It's up to Ralph, OK. They love Ralph. They want Ralph. They just need to be ready in case. Really.

Meanwhile, Schuring is preparing for a bruising primary if Ralph does retire. A likely opponent is Schuring's friend and GA colleage Scott Oelslager. Again from the Rep:

Like Schuring, state Rep. Scott Oelslager, R-North Canton, has long had an interest in the congressional seat Regula occupies, but Thursday he said he had "really no reaction" to Schuring's announcement.

Running for the office is "something I would consider if Congressman Regula does decide not to run," Oelslager said. "I am patiently waiting to see what he wants to do. He's done a great job, and I respect the work he's done."

* * *

If Regula doesn't run, Schuring expects a primary battle costing more than $1 million.

"The simple fact is congressional races are not cheap," he said. "I have a team of individuals who are respected and well-connected. We have a good message and will run on all eight cylinders.

"I'm about to embark in turbulent waters. Elections these days are a blood sport. It's a shame. There was a time when elections were conducted on principles and policy. Now it's about politics and personalities."

Meanwhile, Team Boccieri is feeling it. I emailed for comment last night and got referral to the Google image, plus a couple great lines:

John is not in this to represent the special interests of the wealthy and powerful, who are trying to strongarm the GOP into running the candidate of their choosing. John is committed to representing the PEOPLE of this area, whether working, disabled or retired; young or old, students to senior citizens. We're going to wage an effective, aggressive campaign --no matter who runs on the other side.

* * *

[I]t is fair to say that a certain C-130 pilot is already shaking things up, eh?

This is going to be a sweet race.

UPDATES. First off, I omitted the link to the BSB post. Apologies to Admin. Second, a new post on BSB explains the rogue headline.

Stark Raving Ambiguity

Last night Admin at BSB found a Google hit for a Canton Rep. story entitled "Regula Running After All." The link is dead. Admin is working to track it down.

Meanwhile, the morning papers clarify how murky the picture is. Schuring says he is setting himself up to run if Regula decides to retire. From the Rep:

Running for the office is "something I would consider if Congressman Regula does decide not to run," Oelslager said. "I am patiently waiting to see what he wants to do. He's done a great job, and I respect the work he's done."

Schuring said he told Regula of his plans to form a committee.

"The congressman knows we're doing this and gave his permission," Schuring said. "I am running in concert with his making a decision. If he decides to run, I would take whatever political apparatus I have and fold it into his."

And just in case you a blogger trying to read the tea leaves:

Schuring said there is no hidden message suggesting Regula should retire.

Still not convinced? Here's Schuring in the ABJ:

Regula, who turns 83 later this year, is undecided about running for re-election, according to Schuring.

Schuring has registered with the Federal Election Commission to establish a congressional exploratory committee for the 16th Congressional District, which includes Stark, Wayne and portions of Ashland and Medina counties.

"It is important that there be a candidate and an organization in place to run for the seat in the event the congressman decides to retire," Schuring said in a prepared statement.

It's just about being ready. Nothing against Ralph. Really. OK, Mr. Skeptic, check out the Massilon Independent:

“I’m a big supporter of Congressman Regula,” Schuring said. “The purpose of this committee is to do the exploratory work to prepare for a potential campaign if – and it is a big if – the congressman decides not to run.”

Schuring said he has been in communication with Regula and the congressman has not made up his mind yet about 2008.

“The 2008 election is a presidential year,” Schuring explained. “The primary has been moved up from May to March. That means the filing deadline is less than six months away. That is why it is important to form this committee now – to build a strong grass roots network of support.

“It is important that a candidate and an organization be in place in the event the congressman decides to retire.”

It's up to Ralph, OK. They love Ralph. They want Ralph. They just need to be ready in case. Really.

Meanwhile, Schuring is preparing for a bruising primary if Ralph does retire. A likely opponent is Schuring's friend and GA colleage Scott Oelslager. Again from the Rep:

Like Schuring, state Rep. Scott Oelslager, R-North Canton, has long had an interest in the congressional seat Regula occupies, but Thursday he said he had "really no reaction" to Schuring's announcement.

Running for the office is "something I would consider if Congressman Regula does decide not to run," Oelslager said. "I am patiently waiting to see what he wants to do. He's done a great job, and I respect the work he's done."

* * *

If Regula doesn't run, Schuring expects a primary battle costing more than $1 million.

"The simple fact is congressional races are not cheap," he said. "I have a team of individuals who are respected and well-connected. We have a good message and will run on all eight cylinders.

"I'm about to embark in turbulent waters. Elections these days are a blood sport. It's a shame. There was a time when elections were conducted on principles and policy. Now it's about politics and personalities."

Schuring Looking to Run in the 16th

Jerid at BSB caught this in the Repository:

State Sen. Kirk Schuring said today he is exploring a run for Congress should long-time U.S. Rep. Ralph Regula decide not to seek re-election.

The Jackson Township Republican said he has registered with the Federal Election Commission to establish an exploratory committee for Ohio’s 16th district. The committee, called Citizens for Schuring Congressional Exploratory Committee, includes 124 names, most from Stark County, but also from Wayne and Medina counties, which are part of the district.

What follows is mostly what I just posted as a comment on BSB with a few extra tidbits and some links.

Schuring is a strong candidate in Stark. His Senate district is the entire county. He had a challenge last year from Canton City Councilman Thomas West and won by over ten points. He's a moderate R who avoids social issues and is friendly to public education. He has much of the Stark Co. ed. community behind him.

He's been making noises about proposing his school funding fix again. Given the problems districts in Stark and Medina are experiencing, it will play well.

Jerid mentions in comments that the Timkens are behind Schuring's run. That's strong evidence that Regula is retiring, or at least that the Repubs are nudging him to.

Shuring will play better in Medina County than Regula would. He's probably less strong in Wayne than Ralph just based on name rec., but you would take Medina if you had the choice. He's certainly a stronger choice for the Repubs than the other rumored challenger, Ron Amstutz.

John Boccieri Taking on Ralph UPDATED

By all appearances, the hottest Dem Congressional challenge in 2008 will be State Sen. John Boccieri's run at ancient Congressman Ralph Regula in the Sixteenth. Now Sen. Boccieri has a new website -- JohnforCongress.com with a picture of John and currently popular Gov. Ted Strickland on the front page.

The website rollout is part of Boccieri's campaign kick-off. The "formal" start of the campaign is next week at the closing Hoover plant. From the ebag:

What: Campaign Kick-Off Event for John Boccieri for Congress

Who: Senator Boccieri will be joined by Governor Ted Strickland,
Attorney General Marc Dann, State Treasurer Richard Cordray and other leaders from the Ohio Democratic
Party, along with representatives of veterans' groups and Ohio's
labor movement.

When: 3:00 PM Monday June 11, 2007

Where: Bitzer Park at the intersection of E, Maple and Main Street
across from the Hoover Plant at 101 E. Maple in North Canton, OH 44720

In case of inclement weather, we will meet across the street at:

IBEW Local Union 1985
111 South Main Street, North Canton OH 44720

For more about Sen. Boccieri, check out Yellow Dog Sammy's interview.

The rollout has been covered on other blogs, so let's talk about why this is the hot race. Regula has been in office forever, but support for him is more based on inertia than any strong feelings of attachment. He has a solid base among the Timken Republicans in Stark County, but beyond that, he's like the chair belonging to a beloved, deceased grandmother that doesn't fit with the rest of the decor. Making a change just seems wrong somehow, but there will come a time people decide it's time. If 2008 is again a Democratic year, an appealing candidate able to run a muscular campaign will have a real chance at taking the seat.

Add to that the fact that Regula is, let's be blunt about this, old. He's an eighty-two year old man running in a four county district. Boccieri is less than forty and a serviceman. He will be able to out-hustle Regula and take down the districts outside the Congressman's Stark County base.

Then there is the district. While I don't have access to polling data, or even the index in the Almanac of American Politics, I can read a map. In all likelihood, the Fighting Sixteenth is still a Republican leaning district, but after the 2000 redistricting, it is less so and is more independent-minded. Here is a map of the Ohio districts in 2000 with the Sixteenth shaded in red:


And here, from Boccieri's site, is a map of the current district:


Prior to redistricting the district included all of Ashland County, plus Holmes and part of Knox. These are all conservative Republican Counties where the Dem clubs can hold meetings in tool sheds.

Redistricting took half of Ashland and all of Holmes away and gave Regula most of Medina County. This part of Medina Co. as it happens, is where your humble blogger was raised. Even then, much of the population was more suburban, and therefore more pragmatically, economically and moderately Republican than the rural downstate counties. The cities, Wadsworth and Medina have grown as bedroom communities for Summit County and Cleveland respectively. Much of 2002 insurgent candidate Jeff Seeman's surprise showing came from his strong performance in the Medina County precincts.

Even without the more Democratic northern third, Medina County is home to thousands of voters Boccieri will appeal to. And they are well aware that their Congressman is used to representing Canton and doesn't quite get them. Put that with the fact that the bulk of voters in the district are in Stark County which is the ultimate swing county and this district holds the promise for a pick up.

UPDATE: Paul in comments reminds me to attribute the pre-2000 map. It's from this BGSU paper on how Ohio lost a member of Congress. I filled in the 16th District with MS Paint.