Ohio as viewed from the Beltway.

If you are a politics junkie and you don’t regularly read Chris Cillizza’s The Fix at the WaPo site, you are missing out. Even if you don’t find his analysis compelling – I usually do – he offers a view from the beltway which is as necessary for us to consider as the ground view is for the beltway jocks.

According to Cillizza, Ohio’s primary was among the most fascinating in the nation, both because of the number of contested races and because we’re At the Heart of It All. He posted a preview story, a post-election analysis and a bonus story on competing polls in the Senate race.

I immediately scrolled down the first two stories to takes on the 13th race. In the preview he called it as Sutton vs. Sawyer, with Sutton surging, Sawyer fading, and Cafaro as the potential spoiler. In both pre- and post-election stories, he repeats statements from Republican strategists that a Cafaro would have prompted an all-out assault on the district. He hasn’t updated with R takes on Sutton’s victory.

In the comments to the first story, at least one NEO resident complained about he EM-List fliers. I heard the same thing tonight from some SCPD people. What I hear consistently is 1) Everyone hated the tone and surfeit of anti-Sawyer mailers, and 2) Even people with a fairly sophisticated level of political awareness tag both Em-List and the Sutton campaign. If Betty doesn’t think this is a problem or if she thinks she can just overcome it with “It wasn’t me,” I worry for the campaign.

Finally, Chris breaks down two polls in the Ohio Senate race, Mason-Dixon showing Dewine over Brown 47-36 and a Diane Feldman poll commissioned by Brown showing them essentially even with Brown ahead 45-44. The methodological comparison is pretty heady – real Mystery Pollster stuff. In the end, a case can be made for each poll and neither means much at this point in the game. Still, it’s nice to see something more sophisticated than “Brown commissioned the poll; it must be fixed!”

[Reverie] Capri Comes Full Circle

posted Nov. 5, 2014

It was a hard-fought campaign, but Capri Cafaro is your Representative in the 13th District. Ironically, she succeeds Betty Sutton who beat her out for the nomination eight years ago in a bitter contest. Unlike that contest, this year when Betty stepped down to become Pres. Bayh’s Dep. Sec. of Labor, the open seat didn’t prompt a mad scramble among Democrats. Everyone knew Capri would be the nominee.

As the founding member of the Hate Capri blog brigade back then, it falls to me to recount how we got here. Back then I had no use for Capri at all, but some friends thought she at least had potential – most notably Jill (BTW, congrats on the Bestseller List).

I would have bet the farm that when she lost the primary in ’06, she would be on the next plane back to NYC, only to resurface two years later in a tempting Congressional district. The first step in her road back to political credibility was staying in Lorain Co. and setting up shop there as a nonprofit consultant. By all accounts she did real good there and helped me with the School Funding Reform Amendment in ’07.

Let’s stop and think about that. Kid Z is now in her Senior year at Firestone in the Visual Arts program. Kid T is tearing it up at the Math/Sci middle school at Inventure Place. As I was reading my ancient Cafaro posts to prepare this one, I was reminded that the same election Cafaro lost, Akron lost a levy by less than a point. Back then, we didn’t even know if APS would survive. I barely remember life before growing mills and enforceable state funding levels.

Anyway, Capri’s stay in Lorain seemed to soften her in a good way. Whether it was living with regular old Midwesterners or being truly independent from her Dad, she became far more likeable. I was actually one of the last holdouts. Mostly it was Scott Bakalar who brought me around. And check it out, Scott and Michelle’s latest disc is #27 on Amazon.

Two years making contacts in Lorain Co. made Capri a credible candidate to take on a freshman Republican in Ohio’s House 58. That was a hell of a fight in a Stone Republican district. She benefited from Gov. Strickland’s gaudy poll numbers and brilliantly showed how her opponent was helping obstruct his most popular policies – rural broadband and universally available pre-K. The NRA endorsement didn’t hurt any in that district.

She had some luck getting in, but her success as a legislator was all her. She cemented her rehabbed rep as a strong independent leader by taking the point on redistricting reform. When her erstwhile union allies objected, she gently reminded them that she had the resources to get by without them, thank you very much, and oh by the way did they really want her to fight for coal gas plants in Lorain? They fell in line and the rest was a done deal.

Now some of you are still pissed that the D’s didn’t get the chance to fully stick it to the R’s in the 2010 redistricting. I still maintain that if the D’s were able to gerrymander a 60/40 advantage in Columbus, they soon would become as indolent and corrupt as the Republicans were when Ted took over. Trust me, it’s better this way.

From there, Capri was able to work on what lit her fire – Senior care, health care, help for displaced workers. In short, she became a shoe-in for the 13th. Of course, if she hadn’t worked so hard on redistricting reform, she’d have had a much easier time of it, but she used that to her advantage in the General.

I was able to sit down with her last week. We laughed about that ’06 race, about the barbs we hurled at each other. Hard to say which of us hated the other more. I told her I was proud to know her. I told her she wasn’t just a better legislator, she was a better person. And I told her I always knew she’d look better as a brunette.

Best of luck in Washington, Capri. Don’t forget where you came from and where you have been.

Meanwhile, Prof. W. is looking forward to retirement and we are still unpacking from our summer in Chincoteague. Hard to put myself back in that 2006 election, before George started syndicating MTB all over the place, before he sold during Internet Bubble 2, making all of us shareholders obscenely grateful. Who’d have thought back then it would end up like this?

Pre-Decision 2006 Postmortem, Pt. 2

A few more random observations from last night.

More than one observer called Ohio 13 a last-chance test for organized labor. In the end I’m not sure, given the ephemeral Sawyer campaign. But it certainly was a victory for the more reasonable wing of the labor movement. Among the reasons I was happy about the result is that the UAW’s extremist “trade be damned” stance got the beatdown it so richly deserved. God knows if UAW can internalize that lesson, but we can hope.

While people seem to love talking down Betty Sutton’s intangibles, I don’t see it. One measure of a candidate’s force of personality is the level of enthusiasm and loyalty she inspires in her campaign staff and volunteers – call it the I’d Take a Bullet factor. People at the party last night went absolutely nuts for her. High ITB numbers.

The school levy went down because of a lack of a concerted ground game on Election Day. In particular, the levy committee needs to put real effort into GOTV in Wards 3, 4 and 5. The reliance on each cluster to do its own work is a fatally flawed strategy, and must be seriously amended in November.

BTW, thanks to all who have stopped by to offer their condolences on the levy. Generally I encourage people to post comments taking issue with me. Not on this one, not at this time. To paraphrase Ron White, if you have a thought against the levy, just let it pass. I can’t engage in civilized debate on this right now. If you post, I’ll likely cut loose with a torrent of vulgarity so foul it will blister your screen. Nobody needs to see that.

One of the big lessons generally in this election is the danger of the blogosphere bubble. I’d have swore the Chandra campaign was competitive, that Joe Sulzer would win in the 18th and that Sutton was in trouble. This last was because of the distaste for the EM-List campaign among my friends as well as the ‘sphere. In each case, facts on the ground proved different.

The hit numbers were pretty amazing Monday and Tuesday as people found me by Googling "Capri Cafaro" or "Betty Sutton." Even more amazing are the numbers today as people are doing the same thing. It's been a long time since the NEO saw a Congressional race that so captured imaginations.

Pre-Decision 2006 Postmortem PT. 1: Ohio 13

It’s terribly late, but as soon as I go to bed, I will be stricken with anxieties about what the levy failure will do to my city, so I’ll blog for a bit more.

I went to the Sutton victory party after the declaration of unvictory at the school party. I’ve never been to a post election victory party that was actually about victory, so that in itself was refreshing. I tried to get an interview with Betty, but believe it or not, the Akron Pages is not first in the media line. We started, then she got called away. I talked to her campaign manager for a while, but when we got to the tricky stuff, she wanted some time to think and, you know, actually sleep a while.

What we were talking about in a minute. First, the wherefores.

One question I did get to ask Betty was “Just like you planned it?” She laughed, thought then said, “Yes. We knew where the votes were and went out and got them.” In other words, this was a victory about ground game. Sutton's beat Cafaro's and Sawyer didn't have one.

So why didn’t the person with the money to spend win the ground game? Some time ago someone, I believe it was Redhorse, averred that Cafaro had hit her peak. That was when she was at about 23 points. And indeed. Capri Cafaro just isn’t a terribly appealing candidate. I’m not the only one whose bullshit detector goes off when she speaks.

For anyone with deep misgivings about the result, consider this: With the money she laid out, the media she bought and the staff she should have been able to hire, she should have won going away. The fact that she couldn’t win against a fallen soldier with no war chest and a nearly unknown running a flawed campaign gives the final proof that she was the weakest candidate for the general.

So back to my line of questioning. As I went through the day, it occurred to me that, given the last couple weeks of this primary, I would be writing one of those Let the Healing Begin posts. And it occurred to me that it would be hardest to write such a post if Sutton won. Like Redhorse, I find the EMILY’s List mail campaign difficult to defend. As such, it’s much harder for me to say “Gee, let’s put it all behind us now,” than it would be to say “Well, you won fair and square and I’ll put it all behind me know.”

So I posited to both Betty and her manager that she has some work to do to build credibility with the sorts of people who live around me, hang out with me and read my blog. While politically sophisticated Democrats might not be the most important demographic in the race, our offense is reflected, among other places, on the newspaper ed-boards. What can bring folks like my friends around is also what can garner a few endorsements in the primary.

The one definitive I got was that the campaign would not distance itself from EMILY’s List. I get that, but it puts Betty in a difficult position. I don’t think much of what Betty herself did was that offensive, but pretty much only political junkies will draw a distinction between a campaign and a 527 campaigning behind it. And frankly, I don’t want it to be any other way. As much as the 527’s trouble me, I hope campaigns get burned a few times and learn to keep them at a distance. I’d just rather that didn’t happen to campaigns for people I like.

I’ll be interested in hearing more from the Sutton campaign about how they go about Letting the Healing Begin, especially here in the Merriman corridor. At one point it was pointed out that the people I’m talking about are particularly sophisticated. Exactly. That’s why I do this – so people who think like this have a place to find this sort of discourse and someone who’s in the position to press for answers to these sorts of questions. Stay Tuned.

Pre-Decision 2006: The Results

People have been wandering by the blog all night from Googling various races. Sorry, I've been doing the party scene. You can get results at the Board of Elections, the Secretary of State site or the Beacon Journal.

The Good.

No SMH; Betty Sutton wins the nomination in Ohio 13, 30.5% to 24.9%. Sawyer a distant third. In addition Clair Dickenson wins for Court of Appeals.

The Bad.

Akron School Levy goes down by about 500 votes. God knows how many people just didn't turn the ballot over. Judy Hanna over Kevin Griffith. Hope she doesn't get used to the taste of victory, running as an ultra-liberal in the 27th. Paul Gallagher huge over John Manley.

The Ugly.

Marc Dann 72.9%
Subodh Chandtra 27.1%

_________


So I was 2 for 6 in endorsements. I get it. I'm new at this. It will take some time for you all to trust me. Just wait and see how these people work out.

Pre-Decision 2006: Miscellany and Late Endorsements

A quiet day in the mailbox today. A well-done flier from Kevin Griffith, a levy piece from APS for the wonk set and a Frank Communale for County Council postcard. The April Shower of mailers is over.

Got an odd robo-call from Tom Sawyer. It came from his highest-profile supporter -- Tom Sawyer. After all the calls from this pol in support of that one, it was a little refreshing to hear from the guy himself. In it he took the high road -- let's put aside all the attacks and cast positive votes . . . for Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown. For a voter innocent of the blogosphere it must have been a headsnapper to hear someone suggest putting aside the bickering to vote for the two guys without credible challengers. Then he mentions in an Oh-by-the-way manner that he'd appreciate your vote for him as well.

Sawyer did one of the best political ads I've ever seen when I worked on his campaign against Lynn Slaby in '94. He looked into the camera, recited the charges Slaby was making and said "He knows it's not true and you know it's not true." In that case the low-key high-road approach worked. This time it sounds almost sad.

Speaking of that Brian-Something guy running against Strickland, if I wasn't so tired of him, I'd be worried for him. I have nothing but respect for someone playing out the string. But an 88 county tour over the last weekend of a race in which you are down 3-1 isn't playing out the string, it's delusional. One could chalk it up to Brian setting himself up as a candidate in future elections, but he burned that bridge when he started making veiled remarks about Strickland's sexuality. He's done in this election and he's done in Ohio politics, so the No Sleep 'til Hammersmith* finish has a creepy feel to it.

One thing I'll give Brian; when he was running the Educate Ohio campaign he attracted a tiny but fanatical following. I wonder if he's so insulated himself within that cocoon that he's able to ignore the reality of his situation. You get the picture of Brian wandering around Wednesday morning muttering "How did that happen?" It's been a long time since I've had any use for him, but if anyone is reading who still cares about him, stand by to catch him when he falls. Someone needs to go to his "victory" party armed with a vial of Wellbrutin and the Suicide Hotline number.

I will probably need both of those things if the Columbus Dispatch's poll of the AG's race holds true and Subodh Chandra goes down big. In round one of Blogosphere vs. ODP, ODP is kicking our ass.

Warm fuzzies to PeppermintLisa for endorsing Issue One on her predominently non-political blog. Surf over and drop her a shout-out.

I meant to mention something in my previous Capri Cafaro post -- that as far as I know from talking to her, Betty Sutton is not in favor of junking the entire trade regime, contrary to what Mike Douglas said yesterday. It's entirely Sutton's fault that her position on trade is mush, but if I thought that was her position I'd be endorsing Sawyer.

As we were doing Honk'n'Wave for the levy this afternoon, two friends bent my ear about the Sutton attacks on Sawyer and today's BJ editorial. No question, too much and too far. She may do well with voters at large from the strategy, but she's lost the sort of people that make up my circle of friends. That's why I have a bunch of unused signs in my garage. On the other hand, it's pretty comical that the BJ is evoking the "earlier version of Sutton." I think their petulant refusal to give her any earned ink over their perceptions of her deficiencies as a state legislator pushed the negative campaign to begin with.

According to people who have voted early, the optical scan ballots make voting take longer and, as Redhorse has reported, no one knows if the machines will work, so give yourself plenty of time to stand in line a bit.

A few last minute endorsements.

For Senate in Ohio 27, Kevin Griffith. He's proven himself an able campaigner and Judy Hanna is entirely too liberal to have a prayer against Kevin Coughlin.

For Court of Appeals, Clair Dickenson. I worked with John Quinn -- he in fact hired me to worked in the Summit County Prosecutor's Office, and with Clair in voter protection in '06. Both are excellent people and excellent legal minds. Straight up, Clair is just better. What's more, he's more engaging as a campaigner. And finally, if Quinn is elected, whoever is Governor appoints his replacement in DR court. Unless you want to call Sophie Albrecht "Your Honor," and trust me you don't, vote for Clair.

For Common Pleas court, John Manley. I worked with John as well. A bright and capable man. Paul Gallagher's reputation is consistent with the man who launched the Weeniethon last fall.

I've done my organizing for poll stuff tomorrow. I'll be pretty busy, so don't look for me until late, if at all.

*Good for 35 PhoPoints

The Case Against Cafaro: Back to Basics

With all the endgame noise flying around, it’s easy to get distracted. Yesterday I got a robo-call from County Fiscal Officer John (not an accountant) Donofrio on behalf of Capri Cafaro. He supports her because he thinks her SAW plan would be good for Summit County. I don’t know who a Cafaro nomination would be good for, but I feel pretty confident Donofrio doesn’t really support her because of SAW.

But it made me want, one more time, to lay out the case against Capri. I’ve been pretty consistent in saying the Traficant mess doesn’t mean much to me. I’m grossed out by the Betty Sutton Weak on Pot ad, but Sutton and EM-List haven’t been completely forthright either.

Convention dictates that at this point I say something like “it’s nothing personal, but . . .” Well, it is kind of personal. When Cafaro decided to lie about me and this blog on air to make political points, it became personal. That being said, here are the big three reasons to vote against Capri Cafaro, whether or not you find her as personally distasteful as I.

1. We Can’t Trust Her to Represent Our Interests.

I’ve made much about Cafaro’s district shopping. When I look at the last two years of her life – running in the 14th, heading to New York to set up her PR shop, then coming back here to run, it doesn’t just feel like district shopping. It also evinces a certain disdain for living in Northeast Ohio. I understand – when I was 28 living on the East Coast, didn’t want to come back here either. Things changed and now I love living in Akron. But when I was 28, I did not have the feel for this place necessary to truly represent the people here.

What’s more, to the extent she has learned anything about the 13th District, she’s learned about Lorain Co. I have seen nothing in her campaign, in the Cafaromercials, in her MTB appearance that suggests to me she has made any attempt to understand where the Summit County is going and how to craft a legislative strategy to clear that road. Recently I drove through Barberton – the last truly rust-belt community in Summit. It’s also the only place I’ve seen a proliferation of Cafaro signs. Maybe it was just attacking Sutton at her base, but it also feels like Cafaro’s mentality is purely rustbelt, purely mid-80’s protectionism.

2. SAW is a Tool for Pandering.

One of the few positives I’ve heard about Capri that makes any sense is that her wealth makes her beholden to no one. Well, it certainly doesn’t look that way. It looks like she will say anything to get the love of Old Labor. The SAW plan is so fundamentally silly, her supporters don’t so much support it as make excuses for it – that’s why Donofrio’s call was so jarring. Why spend 55 billion dollars to maintain the status quo? Because spending $56 billion would be stupid.

I suspect that SAW exists primarily as a pretext for running on a platform of junking the entire trade regime – the ultimate sop to the unions. And of course, the fact that all this has exactly zero chance of actually becoming law makes this the very definition of a pander: An insincere proposal to appeal to the hopes and fears of the base. Cafaro’s stance on trade verges on demagoguery.

3. Cafaro is Vulnerable.

What I want in the 13th is not a nail biter, not an uphill battle, not a race where the party is reacting every day to a new presser from the Republican. I want the 13th to have a candidate who can phone it in and ride on the natural Dem advantage in the district. Cafaro guarantees the former, not the latter.

First off, I’m not the only Summit County resident who finds the Tour of Districts Not Held by Tim Ryan to be distasteful. I would probably vote for her – probably – in the general for the sake of working toward gaining power in Congress, but I certainly wouldn’t lift a finger to help and, trust me, she will need many lifted fingers. If she thinks EM-List’s mailings were harsh, wait till the RCCC’s machine starts rolling. All that stuff I say shouldn’t play in – immunity, drug rehab, bad dye jobs – will be flogged relentlessly in mailings, robocalls, megachurch “voter guides” and WNIR.

Meanwhile her extreme retrograde stance on trade will mobilize the SummitCo. business community to drop on the Republican candidate all the money they can. And they will tell all their employees what’s at stake. I’ve talked to friends more liberal than I who are appalled by her platform – because they work for tech firms like Goodyear or AES.

A smart, moderate, pro-business Republican will sweep the Republican voters, and take an overwhelming majority of Independents. From there, it doesn’t take a lot of moderate Dems crossing over to swing the election.

Capri doesn’t just have a bad idea, she is a bad idea.