Wednesday, November 01, 2006

Pho's Election Day Office Pool

People are starting to make predictions about the election. I have my ideas, but probably will keep them to myself. I had thought about a pool about results, but who wants to be in the position of rooting against a Dem to win a pool? As someone who had St. Johns beating Ohio State in the Regional Final in 2001, I assure you, it's no fun.

Plus, in keeping with the previous post, there's another issue that bears attention -- turnout. So the pool is: guess the turnout in total number of voters. I'm going to steal an idea from the mysteriously absent Ohio 13th Blog and award to the winner one post of his/her choosing.

This post was half drafted when I discovered Staff discussing the issue. He cites Blackwell predicting a 54% turnout. I think that's way low. It's consistent with Midterm turnout, but Ohioans have turned out over 60% twice in the past 20 years according to the SOS site. In 1994, the last "Tidal Wave" year, the turnout was 57%.

A few factors suggest turnout will be higher this year. First, early voting. Anecdotally and according to press reports, thousands are taking advantage of it. It can't help but make a difference.

Second, the much-ballyhooed GOP GOTV effort has only been part of the landscape over the last few election cycles. In 2004 it helped up participation to 71%. This year, we have the Dems attempt to parallel the Republican operation, plus left-leaning 527s in the mix. And by the way, if the turnout is in the mid-50s, it means Republicans stayed home and Dems win big.

Finally, the weather report is not great, but OK.

So I'm predicting record turnout for a midterm: 61.5%. Given about 7.85 million on the rolls, my entry is 4,827,758. Got a different idea? Enter in comments or by email prior to polls opening Nov. 7.

5 comments:

Cee Jay said...

My only hope is that those who turn out on election day know more about the candidates and the issues than they have learned watching the 60
second TV commercials. I've been very disappointed by the turnout at the live events I have attended where candidates were actually available to talk about their plans if elected and answer questions. I hope that people have at least gone to web sites and watched some of the debates.

"People often say that, in a democracy, decisions are made by a
majority of the people. Of course, that is not true. Decisions are made by a majority of those who make themselves heard and who vote - a very different thing." Walter H. Judd

redhorse said...

I'll play: 58% for 4,631,500 voters.

bonobo said...

Governor is over and Senator might as well be. Two thirds of the CDs are foregone conclusions, and the issue 2 boost, should it appear, will overlap significantly with the central and sw cds that are already the focus of competetive house campaigns.
My totally baseless assertion is that turnout is driven by the top of the ticket, so my guess goes lower:
4444444 seems like a pretty number.

jcross said...

I'll also play! It'll be 58.2% or 4,568,700 voters.

Eric said...

4,589,423 voters